Egoli reports on the conclusions of a recent Credit Suisse analysis :
"We think the end of an era in terms of China's mighty export industry has just began," say the Credit Suisse economists.
The team has been visiting Guangdong province (China) regularly, and has found that its initial assessment of the new labor law's impact - already pessimistic - was understated. The economists predict that one third of export-oriented manufacturers in the province will be closed within three years. Guangdong produces 30% of China's exports.
What does this mean for the global economy?
The Chinese export economy had already peaked. Replacing its impact has been the growth of the domestic economy, fueled by higher wages and growing domestic consumption, and supported by a government flush with foreign reserves keen to bring Chinese infrastructure up to, or beyond, the standards of that enjoyed by the West. While rising wages and improved labour rights are generally bad for capitalists, as Credit Suisse notes, they are good for workers and domestic consumption. Hence the economists foresee a greater shift towards the growth of China's domestic economy, which would lower the pace of overall growth but improve the "quality" of that growth.
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