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Menampilkan postingan yang diurutkan menurut relevansi untuk kueri debt. Urutkan menurut tanggal Tampilkan semua postingan
Menampilkan postingan yang diurutkan menurut relevansi untuk kueri debt. Urutkan menurut tanggal Tampilkan semua postingan

Graph: Public Debt Over Time, Color-Coded by Party in Power

Not all national debt is the same. The total or gross national debt is the sum of the "debt held by the public" and "intragovernmental" debt. As of February 2011, the "debt held by the public" was $9.6 trillion and the "intragovernmental debt" was $4.6 trillion, for a total of $14.2 trillion.

Intragovernmental debt represents U.S. Treasury securities that are bought and held in accounts which are administered by the United States Government, and includes such accounts as the 'Federal Old Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund', 'Federal Employee Retirement Funds,' 'Federal Hospital Insurance Trust Fund,' and many others. The debt held by the public represents all federal securities held by institutions or individuals outside the United States Government, such as foreign nations that buy US securities, individuals who buy US securities, or banks/institutions that buy US securities. The debt held by the public represents in many ways a better measure of the amount of debt that the United States government owes to the outside world, and so let's take a look at the recent growth of this debt:

This picture shows the growth of the amount of debt held by the public from 1971 to today, with projections into the future. The source of the original graph was the Congressional Budget Office. I then went ahead and color-coded the graph to represent which political parties were in control of our national government at the time.

The conclusion that I have reached is that the party that controls Congress matters a lot more than the party that controls the Presidency in determining the amount of debt that our nation owes to the public. Under Republican Presidents, the debt went up and down by small amounts. Under Democrat Presidents, the debt decreased by a large amount and exploded by a large amount. But when you look at the party in control of Congress you see the largest changes in the amount of debt. Democrat control of Congress has been responsible for the most increases in the debt, while Republican control of Congress was responsible for the largest decreases and stability.

Based on this data, I suggest that next election you pay more attention to who you are voting for in Congress- we need to make sure that Republicans are in control of both the House and Senate by strong and sizable majorities. It is of lesser importance who controls the White House, although I would venture to guess that a Clinton Democrat is different enough than a radical Obama Democrat that in this upcoming election it does matter who is President, and it needs to be anyone other than Obama (a moderate Democrat or a Republican).

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Obama's Debt Is Going to Destroy Our Nation

As of Sept. 30, 2009, the national debt was almost $12 trillion and interest on that debt was $383 billion for the year, according to the Treasury Department's Bureau of the Public Debt. The White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) estimated total government revenues at about $2 trillion, of which $904 billion is from individual income taxes.

That means that 42% of the tax money that you send to Washington is simply being used to cover the interest on the debt. The other 58% of the tax money that you work so hard to send to Washington is being used to provide more and more and more government services and to issue more and more government promises that are going to lead to to more and more debt. The principle on the balance is not being paid back, and there is no intention for it to ever be paid back.

In the first year of Obama's administration, the debt grew at a record pace. The Congressional Budget Office on Oct. 7 estimated the 2009 budget deficit to be almost $1.4 trillion- that is a stunning amount of debt to add, especially when our nation did not have to deal with a hurricane or terrorist attack or war- the only disaster that hit our nation in 2009 was Barack Obama being elected President.

I know my math is probably too simplistic- someone with an economics degree needs to correct it- but if $12 trillion in debt= 383 billion in interest, that is $32 billion in interest per trillion. Obama intends to add to the national debt over the next 10 years another 9.7 trillion (his own spending plans called for another 11.1, and he's already dropped 1.4, so that equals 9.7). That will mean another $310 in interest. If the economy does not recover and tax receipts do not surge (in fact, they shrank this year), then that means that the government will pay $694 in interest alone, while only collecting $904 from taxes.

If we continue Obama's policies for another 16 years, our nation will be in debt $29 trillion dollars and owe $907 per year in interest. We will owe more in interest than we bring in in taxes. If we continue Obama's economic policies another 20 years, the interest we owe on our debt will be greater than all revenues combined. America will be destroyed.

The numbers are sobering, even if my math is wrong. Obama's policies are going to economically destroy our nation in a fire of debt and interest. Anyone who supports his policies or his Democratic allies's are destroying the hopes and future of your children and grandchildren, who will have to live in a country that is bankrupt beyond any hope of ever emerging.

Obama's policies are going to send our entire nation to a debtors prison from which we may never again emerge.

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Trying to Make Sense of the Debt Limit Debate?

I'm confused.

The United States Congress, under both Republican and Democrat, has from time to time established a 'debt limit' in order to force our government to recognize that there is a limit on the total amount of debt that our nation can amass. The purpose of this debt limit or debt ceiling was to put a limit on how much the government could spend in deficit spending once the limit was reached- in other words, our nation brings in $2 trillion in taxes and if the debt ceiling is hit, it should spend that $2 trillion and not more. Once long ago (15 years ago), our nation was able to do that- once, under different times (5 years ago) our nation only added $500 billion or so a year to our debt and so the debt limit looked a long way away. But that was different times, before the utter madness and insanity that is the Obama administration teamed with a liberal Democrat Congress.

We all know the story now- Obama has added more to the nation debt in the first term of his administration that almost every administration in the history of the United States combined (yes, even more than two term Presidents Reagan+Bush). His budgets (when they aren't being laughed off the table) project the utter bankruptcy of the United States in the near future, especially when massive new entitlements like Obamacare kick in and explode the cost of healthcare and dramatically increase unemployment while attacking the life, liberty, and property of the citizens of our nation.

In their infinite wisdom Congress has foreseen a time like this, and so the debt limit was put in place to stop the madness of King Obama. The limit has been reached- it is now time to stop spending money and live within the government's massively ample means. Or, if this means the utter collapse of America, then kick up the debt limit another trillion in return for a budget that adds a massively mind-blowing $500 billion in debt this year (we're still dealing with this year's budget since the Democrats in the House and Senate passed no budget last year when they controlled those institutions, and the Senate Democrats aren't even pretending any more to propose a budget for the current year even though they control that institution), $500 billion in debt next year, and a balanced budget given to the next President.  I'm okay with that kind of a deal, signed on by both parties.

Here is where the confusion strikes- neither the Republicans nor the Democrats are negotiating for this objective or anything like it.

President Barack Hussein Obama (Democrat, Illinois) and the Democrats in the House (Screechen' Pelosi) and the Senate (which they still have control over because idiots continue to vote Democrat), as far as I can gather, wants the debt limit raised $4 trillion (which will get him into his hypothetical next administration) in return for unspecified cuts of whatever amount that will occur long after he has left. The only concrete proposal that I have seen from him is a measly $200 billion cut for Medicare, a Medicare program that he cut $500 billion out of already as part of making his Obamacare screw-over laughingly 'budget neutral'. Other than that, there big solution is more taxes- they feel that they can take money from people who are currently earning it fairly based on their hard work and effort and innovation because there are fewer of these people and that's what tyrannies do- beat up on the few to give meager handouts to the many. They are proposing higher taxes on those who make over $250K year- not those who are already wealthy or who inherited their money, because those people are the super-rich hereditary elite who are increasingly ruling over us- but rather that those who are earning and making their money and working their way up are beat down, punished, discouraged, and driven back downwards to the bottom, creating a permanent class of rich who have and poor who have not.

Both Democrats and Republicans also have been talking about cutting 'tax loopholes' or cutting 'spending through the tax code'. Don't fall for this kind of stuff- the sorts of things that the government considers 'spending through the tax code' are tax credits, deductions, exclusions, exemptions, deferrals, and preferential rates. Examples of 'tax expenditures' include the mortgage tax deduction, the 'Bush' tax cuts, the 'Obama' tax cuts, having pensions be tax exempt, dividend taxes, exclusion of taxes your employer pays on health care, tax credits for children, the elimination of the 'marriage penalty, and many more. Cutting this sort of spending will raise taxes on families, employers, home owners, retirees, and many more, in order to transfer wealth to low income earners and other politically favorable groups who will be exempt from such devastating automatic tax increases.

The Republicans also talk about wanting the government to cut spending back to the bloated, inefficient, and massive levels that it existed under big-government Republican President George W. Bush, combined with 'reforms' that are meaningless mishmash of poor words thrown at a wall doing nothing for the future.

It is simple- the limit has been reached, government should only spend the unbelievable amount that it takes in, and figure out something for next year. I don't understand why everyone else is so confused about this issue.

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GOP Budget Only Cuts $6 Trillion of Obama's $10 Trillion Debt Over Next 10 Years

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) last month released an analysis of the Obama administration’s budget proposal for the 2012 fiscal year and for the coming decade, and apparently Obama underestimated his budget proposal’s impact on the national deficit and debt. The CBO wrote that "Federal debt held by the public would double under the President’s budget, growing from $10.4 trillion (69 percent of GDP) at the end of 2011 to $20.8 trillion (87 percent of GDP) at the end of 2021.”

Over the next 10 years Obama plans to add another $10 trillion in debt to the bill that our children and grandchildren will owe for services and goods for their parents and grandparents; this is in addition to the over $4 trillion that he has already amassed in debt in only 3 years and assumes that Democrat's policies will lead to lower healthcare costs and steady economic growth, both of which are unlikely. These policies continue to be supported by Democrats in Congress such as my Congressman Gary Peters and Senator Debbie Stabenow, who have done nothing to put the brakes on Obama's attempt to destroy the future of our nation by burying it under mountains of debt, much of it now owed to foreign governments like China.

Via memeorandum I see that the Republicans have unveiled a proposal in the House which will cut $6 trillion of that debt out, resulting in a growth in debt of only $4 trillion,  meaning that under that proposal our government will continue to amass mountains of debt that will still destroy our nation. That's right, you heard me correctly- even with the 'extreme' GOP proposal, our nation will continue to live beyond its means and do so by borrowing from our future, owing to tyrants, restricting our future prosperity because of higher interest payments, and weakening the institutions on which the citizens of our future depend. Even with a $6 trillion cut, our nation's life, liberty, and property will be less protected and secure.

Democrats are expected to fight this GOP cut tooth and nail as they to push for more and more spending so that not only is our nation destroyed at the slow pace of the Republicans are now suggesting or the fast pace of Obama's budget, but apparently at an even super fast pace of utter destruction and collapse as fast and irresponsibly as possible. Stabenow, Peters, and Democrats in Congress are irresponsibly destroying our future because they know that if they promise people things that they did not earn or work for, they will get elected, regardless if it means that in the future my children and grandchildren will have a lesser life. This rush into destruction, encouraged by our Destructor-in-Chief and his Destructor Party, is only going to be slowed by GOP proposals like the one they unveiled yesterday.

Let me be clear- $6 trillion in cuts to a debt over $10 trillion over the next 10 years are not enough. The Federal government should balance the budget NOW and stop stealing wealth from my kids. The Republicans haven't gone far enough, and the Democrats should be ashamed of themselves for opposing these paltry cuts which only slow the theft of wealth from my children but do not stop it.

UPDATE: This post earlier used the first number that Ryan released, $4 trillion. I have since updated it with the new number, $6.2 trillion, and changed nothing else, since my point remains- whether it is $6 trillion in debt or $4 trillion in debt, that's too much to pass on to our children. Ryan didn't go far enough.

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Africa returns to the markets

Emerging Markets reports on SSA debt markets:

If domestic debt markets are to develop, it is also vital to improve local debt management, which has generally lagged behind efforts at debt relief. Countries need a clear debt management plan(pdf) and issuance strategy(pdf), which might include publishing a debt management report, lengthening the yield curve, building benchmark issues as conditions permit and widening the investor base
Establishing a market for sovereign debt issues is key:
The limited size of local debt markets means that not all financing needs can be met domestically, and external commercial borrowing may also be cheaper than domestic debt, by removing the inflation and currency risk faced by international investors. Finally, it also fits in with the need to maintain a diversified funding mix. African governments now seem ready to test international investor appetite with sovereign issues, and Ghana’s milestone Eurobond issue in September points the way – the Ghanaian government could not have raised $750 million at a yield of 8.5% in the local market. African companies have also been active in the international market, especially telecoms and banks, and we believe international bond issues will be a significant feature of corporate Africa going forward.

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Despite Debt Relief, Poor Nations Back In the Red

Let us not pretend to be suprised by this, a number of assessments have warned about the futility of debt relief policies.

The report by the Washington-based Independent Evaluation Group (IEG) says that in half the countries that received debt relief under the programme known as the Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative, debt has in fact climbed back up to where it was before the debt relief plan.So far, the HIPC initiative has eased 19 billion dollars of debt in 18 countries, halving their debt ratios. However, the IEG found that in 11 of the 13 countries the report studies, and which graduated from the programme that qualifies them to start receiving debt forgiveness, called the completion-point, external debt has actually risen.
Wealth creation,industrialization and broad culture of ownership are the keys to climbing out of poverty.The sooner Sub-Saharan Africa accepts that this inescapable fact relates entirely to self-reliance the better.

via DENIAfrica

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CBO's Latest Predictions on Obama Budgest- $9.8 trillion More in Debt Over Next Decade

According to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO), President Obama's latest budget plans would generate deficits over the upcoming decade that would total $9.8 trillion. That's $1.2 trillion more than predicted by the administration, and doesn't take into account that recent CBO estimates of Obama's budget plans have been underestimated the deficits.

Barack Obama, a Democrat, in his first year of office (2009) submitted a budget to the Democrats who run America's Congress that added another eye-popping $1.75 trillion to the federal debt. That is the highest ever in dollar terms, and amounts to a 12.3 percent share of the economy - the largest since 1945. He is now prepared to follow that with more eye-popping deficit budgets that will add another minimum of $9.8 trillion to the debt, especially if Obama is a two-term President (8 years).

Under the president's budget, debt held by the public would grow from US$7.5 trillion (53 percent of GDP) at the end of 2009 to US$20.3 trillion (90 percent of GDP) at the end of 2020,” CBO said. This level has not been seen since World War Two, and is not sustainable.

Interest on the debt would become one of the largest spending categories in the federal budget, and would more than quadruple in the next 10 years, rising from US$209 billion this year to US$916 billion in 2020. This debt would increasingly be held by foreign investors, such as China, who currently hold $7.5 trillion in debt but at the end of Obama's two-terms would hold $20.3 trillion in American debt.

Obama has repeatedly said that he inherited a financial mess from his Republican predecessor President George W. Bush and had to step up government spending immediately after taking office to fight the worst U.S. recession in decades. He has indeed done so, dramatically increasing federal spending (CBO estimates that showed a record US$3.8 trillion in spending in fiscal 2011). He also says that he will fight these deficits that he is increasing by increasing taxes and fees, arguing that taxing more of the wealth from Americans will revive the economy and lead to higher government revenues and thus lower deficits.

Obama is wrong- raising taxes will lead to falling revenues, more government programs will stagnate growth, the federal government debt will be a toxic drag on the economy, increased government spending will create more inefficiencies in the marketplace, and his trade policies will lead to falling exports and rising costs of imports. Obama and the Democrats in Congress are wrong for America.

Information and data for this story came from this source.

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Obama Proposes Massive Automatic Tax Increases with Debt Failsafe Trigger

In Obama's recent speech on reducing the debt (also see my earlier post on this subject), President Obama proposed instituting a "debt trigger," or fail-safe mechanism, that would force the government to make substantial reductions in discretionary spending if deficits exceed 2.8 percent of GDP starting 2014 (which they are going to as a result of his budget calling on more and more spending combined with his policies which encourage lower and lower GDP). Entitlement programs would be exempt, which is important, because entitlement programs make up most of what our government spends money on and are predicted to overwhelm our entire budget in the coming decades, so by making them exempt from this 'debt trigger', the President conveniently votes present on the most important issues facing our nation once again.

Via Yglesias, I see that the White House sent out additional information about this 'debt trigger' proposal. Their bullet points say:

— A debt failsafe that will ensure that our nation’s debt is on a declining path as a share of our economy. If by 2014, budget projections do not show that the debt-to-GDP ratio has stabilized and is declining in the second half of the decade, the failsafe will trigger an across the board spending reduction, including on spending through the tax code.

— The trigger will ensure that deficits as a share of the economy average no more than 2.8% of GDP in the second half of the decade.

— Consistent with prior fiscal enforcement mechanisms put in place by Presidents Reagan, George H.W. Bush and Clinton, the trigger should not apply to Social Security, low-income programs, or benefits for Medicare enrollees.

— The trigger should also include a mechanism to ensure that it does not exacerbate an economic downturn or interfere with our nation’s ability to respond to a national security emergency.
Although this appears to be saying that if the governments spends too much money and drives our nation into bankruptcy, the language is key- entitlements are exempt, welfare is exempt, any 'low-income programs' are exempt, anything that might 'exacerbate an economic downturn are exempt(like 'investments' in 'green energy' or any other favored liberal project), and most importantly, the spending reduction will include reduction 'on spending through the tax code.'

So what sort of spending occurs through the tax code that may be cut out if politicians spend too much money on programs that make our nation less wealthy and prosperous and free?

The formal name for 'spending through the tax code' are tax expenditures, and these are basically 'spending' through the use of the tax code. The sorts of things that the government considers 'spending through the tax code' are tax credits, deductions, exclusions, exemptions, deferrals, and preferential rates.

Examples of 'tax expenditures' include the mortgage tax deduction, the 'Bush' tax cuts, the 'Obama' tax cuts, having pensions be tax exempt, dividend taxes, exclusion of taxes your employer pays on health care, tax credits for children, the elimination of the 'marriage penalty, and many more. A full list of 'tax expenditures' can be found in this document.

What Obama is calling for and Democratic legislators are supporting and liberal bloggers are rallying behind is a provision that will automatically raise taxes on families, employers, home owners, retirees, and many more, in order to transfer wealth to low income earners and other politically favorable groups who will be exempt from such a devastating automatic tax increase.

The fact that the media just let this slip by without discussing and analyzing it is amazing and demonstrates how far outside of the mainstream that Obama is that his proposal to demand automatic massive tax increases on many of us was just another in a long laundry list of horrible socialist leftist proposals and so didn't demand further analysis and commentary.

When you vote next year, don't let you or your family forget that the President of the United States wants you to pay considerably more in taxes so that he and his cronies in government can continue to dole that money out to their favored groups in society.

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March to Collapse: US Government Borrowed $786 Billion in March Alone

Via memeorandum, from CNSNews story March Madness: U.S. Gov't Spent More Than Eight Times Its Monthly Revenue:

The U.S. Treasury has released a final statement for the month of March that demonstrates that financial madness has gripped the federal government. During the month of March, according to the Treasury, the federal government grossed $194 billion in tax revenue and paid out $65.898 billion in tax refunds (including $62.011 to individuals and $3.887 to businesses) thus netting $128.179 billion in tax revenue for March. At the same time, the Treasury paid out a total of $1.1187 trillion. When the $65.898 billion in tax refunds is deducted from that, the Treasury paid a net of $1.0528 trillion in federal expenses for March....

....To help pay off its $1.0528 trillion in monthly bills on only $128.179 in monthly tax revenue, the Treasury turned primarily to new borrowing. During the month, according to the Treasury statement, the government sold $786.5 billion in new securities. It also drew down its cash balance from $190.6 billion at the beginning of the month to $118.1 billion at the end of the month. It also reaped $18 billion from the sale of assets in the Troubled Asset Relief Program....
Let's summarize what is happening under Democrat President Barack Obama's leadership with Democratic control of the Senate (currently blocking attempts by the brand-new Republican House):
  • The federal government is not content to stay in massive debt, is not content to add to the debt at the levels that were unacceptable under Bush (except for his last year, usually under $400 billion), and the federal government is not content to simply add massive amounts of new debt simply during a time of 'crisis' or to 'stimulate' the economy- nope, they want to add ever and ever and every larger amounts of debt.
  • This debt is not pretend play money- it is real money that has to come from somewhere. Last month, the federal government soaked up $785 billion in money. That $785 billion could have gone to building new factories, modernizing plants, investing in new technologies, paying off debt that consumers owe, investing in stock markets, bringing homes values back to past values, or as savings for the future. This whole crisis started because of a lack of liquidity- I'm no genius, but I fail to understand how the government soaking up larger and larger and larger amounts of money will lead to a more liquid environment for cash in the private sector.
  • $785 billion is a lot of money that should be able to buy a lot of things... and yet, look at our nation. That money is just being burned away, piddled away with little to show with it. In my family budget, when times get rough, we cut out the fancy food and extra amenities and go back to the basics, and yet there is a belief that when times get rough for the government (and I would assert that historic and nation-altering debt levels are rough) it must spend more on extras and fancies and giveaways. Zero accountability with this money being spent.
  • Treasuries continue to pay a yield. If the economy in the United States continues to struggle, I don't imagine many are able to buy US Treasury bonds, except the rich, so I'm guessing that most of these bonds are being bought up by non-US actors (banks and states and companies and foreigners), who will then own a piece of the United States. This will restrict and restrain our nation's ability to act according to its interests, and will mean that every month, US taxpayers will be sending taxes to DC, who will then send the foreign holders of our debt a check, which means that our taxpayers are working to provide funding to perhaps tyrannical and immoral governments.
  • Democrats are responsible for this mess. On the ballot next year there are Democrats- for me, there is a Democratic President, Senator, and Congressman. I intend to hold them to account for this mismanagement of government, and I hope you do too.

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My Pledge: To Vote Against Anyone Who Votes to Raise Debt Limit More Than $1 Trillion

For the record, I will vote in the primary against any Congressman or Senator or President who raises the debt ceiling more than $1 trillion. I'm a reasonable man- another trillion in debt should buy our nation another year, which should be enough time to get a better handle on the annual deficits and maybe the Democrats will even do their job and produce a budget of some kind.

But our nation can only escape collapse if it stops taking the wealth from citizens. The means that it can not raise taxes in any way, and it can no longer sell debt which only takes credit and wealth out of our system.

Any 'future spending cuts' or 'fantasy entitlement reforms' mean very little to me, because I don't trust Democrats or Republicans to actually implement them (Democrats because when they promise these things they are lying and do not intend to do anything of the sort, and Republicans because when they promise these things they lack the strength to deliver on them). The only thing that matters is raising the debt limit, and I'm okay with that being raised $1 trillion dollars.

A balanced budget amendment would have been neat to have, but again, the only thing that matters to me is that our debt to GDP ratio does not go about 100%, and the only way that happens if it the debt limit stays under $15.5 trillion, which is a raise of $1 trillion dollars.

Of course, in the general election, I'll have to consider other factors, such as whether a RINO is better than a communist, but in the primary, I pledge to vote against Congressman Peters, Senator Levin, Sentator Stabenow, and President Obama if any of them vote to raise the debt limit more than $1 trillion.

The rest of you can do whatever the heck you want, but this is the pledge that I am making and will hold myself to.

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Debt, Despots and Domination

Chris Ngwodo writes "...we should realize that the current prominence of debt relief in international circles is driven by much more than altruism...debt relief is aimed at altering the social climates that support the spread of extremism and terror all over the third world without altering the global economic balance of power...ongoing campaign for debt relief must be articulated from the perspective of its moral economy. Much of those debts are odious because they were incurred by dictatorships which were unrepresentative of the masses now groaning under the debt burden...debt relief must be accompanied by the institution of justice in the global economic system. The pious hypocrisy of the west in championing free markets in Africa while maintaining subsidies and guarding its own markets strategically is obvious...The willingness of so many western countries and banks to receive stolen funds is as criminal as the original theft itself. The debt issue should be tied to the repatriation of Africa's stolen wealth that has been piling up in foreign vaults...African nations must look inward and tackle decisively the culture of graft that is destroying governance and impoverishing their people. It would be profound to see past leaders and government operatives being put on trial and convicted for economic crimes, theft and embezzlement..."
Via Pambazuka News

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US Government Sets Record for Debt- $200 billion in one week

According to CNN Money, the U.S. government began a record weekly sale of $200 billion in Treasury debt this week. You can read the article here to get the details on what sorts of debt is sold, but I think the key line is here:

While analysts expect this week's auctions to go well, there is concern that the growing supply of Treasurys could eventually overwhelm demand as the United States continues to offer massive amounts of debt each month. (Although) demand from overseas buyers has remained healthy.
Translation- there is a real fear that the US government is soaking up all the money in the world, and there will be no buyers on our debt notes next month, as the US debt explodes in a manner never before conceived. Oh, and the buyers of our record debt, who are going to earn considerable interest on it for a long time, are oversea's buyers.

This is Democrat control of our economy. Children spending money that isn't there, borrowing it from our enemies around the world, paying them interest and giving them control over our country, all to pay for schemes that lower the quality of life in our nation. Democrats mean borrowed money and stolen property to pay for lessening the protections of life and liberty.

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Steve Brenan Dislikes America, or So I Imagine He Does

Steve Brenan of the Washington Monthly (which I found via memeorandum) begins his blog post 'None Dare Call it Sabotage' this way...

Consider a thought experiment. Imagine you actively disliked the United States, and wanted to deliberately undermine its economy. What kind of positions would you take to do the most damage?
Let's play the game! Close your eyes and take a minute to think about the policies you would put in place if you disliked America- the kind that would really do the most damage. What did you come up with?

In my mind, those positions that you would take to do the most damage to America would be those positions that damaged our long-term economic strength, eroded our historical values, weakened our security, opened up our borders to invasion, piled up debt, moved people from jobs to welfare, and granted other nations power over our domestic and foreign affairs. To be honest, the stimulus bill might have helped provide employment for people in favored union industries, but long-term, it is a policy designed to do considerable damage to America. Obamacare appears nice to some groups and rewards those who don't take care of themselves, but in the long term will be costly for the government to provide and will encourage structural irresponsibility, and includes death panels and money for abortions, both of which I also consider damaging positions for America. Letting pot be legalized, letting illegal immigrants flow into America, suing states that try to close the borders, encouraging gay marriage, doing little to stop the breakdown of the traditional family structure, funneling more money to killing unborn babies, working to remove firearms from law-abiding citizens, stealing money from my children and grandchildren to give higher salaries to government employees today, and letting Iran get nuclear weapons I would also consider positions taken to harm America by those who dislike our nation.

The funny thing is, after much thought (for a liberal), Steve arrived at a much different conclusion than I did. This is what he imagined:
You might start with rejecting the advice of economists and oppose any kind of stimulus investments. You'd also want to cut spending and take money out of the economy, while blocking funds to states and municipalities, forcing them to lay off more workers. You'd no doubt want to cut off stimulative unemployment benefits, and identify the single most effective jobs program of the last two years (the TANF Emergency Fund) so you could kill it.


You might then take steps to stop the Federal Reserve from trying to lower the unemployment rate. You'd also no doubt want to create massive economic uncertainty by vowing to gut the national health care system, promising to re-write the rules overseeing the financial industry, vowing re-write business regulations in general, considering a government shutdown, and even weighing the possibly of sending the United States into default.

You might want to cover your tracks a bit, and say you have an economic plan that would help -- a tax policy that's already been tried -- but you'd do so knowing that such a plan has already proven not to work.
It's almost as if there really is a bizzaro world out there, where up is down, left is right, and wrong is right. Every liberal program that I said was bad (because it was paid for by debt, encouraged unemployment, discouraged private initiative and hard work and responsibility, and was contrary to the historical values on which our nation was founded) he said was good. Every policy item that he pointed as something that would be good for America I saw as being bad for America.

I guess there is only one way to really test this stuff out. Let's let the Republicans run things for a couple years and then compare that to when Democrats ran things.... oh my word, we've done that (2000-2006 vs 2008 to 2010 is the only real comparison, although if you want to compare Michigan's growth from 1990 to 2002 vs 2002 to 2010, that'd be fair too) and based on that evidence, liberals like Steve are wrong and conservatives like me are right. See my posts Graph Comparing Unemployment Rate For GOP and Democrat Senators, Democrats=Higher Poverty, or my lengthy personal statistical analysis post Employment-Population Ratio Drops to 58.5%.

The data don't lie. Steve doesn't like America. I imagined it so.

UPDATE: For more of my thoughts about bizzaro world, please check out my earlier post 100 Years of Trying- Communism Wins in the End Though or my more indepth analysis of bizzaroness Bizarro World and the Israeli-Hamas Conflict.

UPDATE II: Some quick numbers... I'm bad with math so feel free to check them... between 1945 and 2008 (63 years), Democratic Presidents have been in charge for 28 years and added 2.05 trillon to the debt. From 2009 to 2011 (3 years), Democratic President Barack Obama added another 5.2 trillion in debt, bringing the total to 7.25. Projected debts for next year (2012) are over a trillion by quite a bit. Republican Presidents have been in charge 35 years, and from 1945 to 2009 added 7.75 trillion in debt. So, is the record clear on who adds more debt? Before Bush, it was Democrats. After Obama, it is going to be the Democrats again. And if Obama wins in 2012 and Democrats take back control of Congress, deficits will be several trillion a year for another 4 years, and not only will that be the end of our nation, but the record for which party is worse at adding debt will be conclusive. Foolish comments from liberals with no idea what they are talking about is always welcome though.

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Debt Ceiling Rises; Another Car in the Long Train of Abuses?

In a dramatic Christmas eve vote, the Senate voted massively increase the amount of debt that the United States government is going to pile up, raising the ceiling on the government debt to $12.4 trillion, an amount that should only be enough to last through February, analysts say.

With the move, Democrats in Congress announced that they had no intention of ever balancing the budget and intend to pile up as much debt as rapidly as they can before they are thrown out of office. The move will surely doom generations of future Americans to poverty and crippling interest payments, but the Congressman of the broken 'me-first' hippy generation of the '60's and '70's signalled that it doesn't care at all for the grandchildren and great-grandchildren of our nation, who will not see the benefits of this spending (Social Security, Medicaid, Medicare, etc are all projected to be bankrupt within 20 years) but will see this debt.

Democrats applauded the move to raise the debt ceiling to $12,400,000,000,000, saying that in order to pay off all of the politically connected groups that vote Democrat, it is necessary to give ever increasingly amounts of money.

President Obama also applauded the move, saying that after campaigning last year as a moderate and as someone who will balance the budget that it is only fitting that people who believed his lies will pay for them now by destruction of the futures of their kids and grandkids.

Thank you Senators and Congressman for screwing over my kids with this vote. At some point, the risk-reward ratio for voting and changing the system vs bloody revolution and overthrow will switch, and that point is coming quickly.

Governments long established should not be overthrown because of passing and light mistakes- but these permanent and brutal blows that the Democrats are laying on the people are moving beyond light and transient. What the Democrats are doing is passing many many laws in a row which demonstrate their ultimate goal of tyranny and oppression, and if that is the case, it is my right and duty to destroy the United States government and put in place a new government for the benefit of our future, a government that will protect the life, liberty, and property of my children and grandchildren. That point is rapidly approaching.

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Smart Aid for Africa

Mired in grinding poverty and social destitution, Africa cries for help. A cacophonous galaxy of rock stars, anti-poverty activists, and heads of state are calling on the G-8 countries to cancel Africa’s $350 billion crippling foreign debt and double aid to the continent. British Prime Minister Tony Blair will make aid to Africa the centerpiece in Britain's presidency of the G-8 meeting in Gleneagles, Scotland in July. Live 8 is planned for July 2. After meeting with President Bush on June 10, modalities are being worked out to cancel at least $34 billion in debt of 27 of the world’s poorest nations, mostly African. Will this African Marshall Aid Plan work?

Africa’s plight follows a ten-year attention deficit cycle. Every decade or so, mega-plans are drawn up and rock concerts held to whip up international rescue mission for Africa. Acrimonious wrangling over financing modalities ensues. Years slip by, then a decade later, another grand Africa initiative is unveiled. Back in 1985, there was Live Aid and a “Special Session on Africa” held by the United Nations to boost aid to Africa. Then in March 1996, the U.N. launched a $25 billion Special Initiative for Africa. In September 2005, the plight of Africa will again take center-stage at a U.N. conference with clockwork precision. Expect another major initiative for Africa in 2015.

Helping Africa of course is noble but has now become a theater of the absurd – the blind leading the clueless. A recent IMF study estimated that Africans in the diaspora remit $32 billion annually back to Africa, with the main destinations being Ghana, Nigeria, and Kenya. About $7 billion is sent to southern Africa (Ghana News Agency, Accra, May 31, 2005). The amount Africans abroad remit back exceeds the $25 billion Tony Blair seeks to raise.

Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo says corrupt African leaders have stolen at least $140 billion (£95 billion) from their people since independence. The World Bank estimates that 40 per cent of wealth created in Africa is invested outside the continent. Even the African Union, in a stunning report last August, claimed that Africa loses an estimated $148 billion annually to corruption – or 25 percent of the continent's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Rather than plug the huge hemorrhage, African leaders prefer to badger the West for more money. And the West, blinded by its own racial over-sensitivity and guilt over the iniquities of the slave trade and colonialism, obliges. This is the real tragedy of Africa.

Between 1960 and 1997, the West pumped more than $450 billion in foreign aid – the equivalent of four Marshall Aid Plans – into Africa with nothing to show for it. Contrary to popular misconception, foreign aid is not free but a soft loan. Outright debt relief and massive inflow of aid without any conditionalities, safeguards or monitoring mechanisms is absurd. It is akin to writing off the credit card debt of a drunken sailor and allowing him to keep the same credit cards. No African government has been called upon to give a full public accounting of who took what loan and for what purpose since many of Africa’s foreign loans taken in the past were misused and squandered. No government official has been held accountable; instead, irresponsible past borrowing behavior is being rewarded.

More distressing, much of the new aid money will flow directly into an African government budget – a huge black maze of vanishing tax receipts, extra-budgetary expenditure items, perks and off-budget “presidential privy accounts,” redolent with graft, patronage and waste. Over the past few decades, African budgets have careened out of control. State bureaucracies have swollen, packed with political supporters. Back in 1996, 20 percent of Ghana's public sector workforce was declared redundant by the Secretary of Finance and Guinea’s 50,000 civil servants were consuming 51 percent of the nation's wealth. In Kenya, civil service salaries take up half the budget; in Uganda, it is 40 percent. Zimbabwe has 54 ministers; Uganda with a population of 35 million has 70, while Ghana, with a population of 22 million, has 88 ministers and deputy ministers. With bloated bureaucracies, soaring expenditures and narrow tax bases, budget deficits have soared.

They are covered with World Bank loans and foreign aid (Ghana’s budget is 50 percent aid-financed and Uganda’s is 60 percent). If the aid is insufficient, the rest of the budget shortfall is financed by printing money. Even when is aid available for “budgetary support”, there is no guarantee that it will be used productively to generate a return to repay the soft loan. It could well be “consumed” when it pays for the salaries of civil servants. Writing off Uganda’s debt does not eliminate the aid dependency. In fact, when the World Bank canceled $650 million of Uganda’s debt in 1999, the first item President Yoweri Museveni purchased was a new presidential jet!


British Prime Minister thinks he can cajole or browbeat African leaders into curbing corruption and ensuring that resources released by debt relief are put to some good use – such as increased spending on education and health care. But the push for good governance and reform must come from within – from African civil society groups, organizations and the people. However, in country after country, chastened by diabolical restrictions, these groups have no freedom or political space to operate.

Carlos Cardoso, an investigative journalist, was murdered in November 2000 for uncovering a bank scandal in which about $14 million was looted from Mozambique's largest bank, BCM, on the eve of its privatization. The official in charge of banking supervision, Antonio Siba Siba, was also murdered while investigating the banking scandals. Such was also the fate of Norbert Zongo, a popular journalist in Burkina Faso, who was gunned down on Dec 13, 1998, while investigating official corruption. In September 2001, President Isaias Afwerki closed down all the independent media and arrested its staff, quashing calls for democratic reforms. In all, the government shut down eight private newspapers and arrested its journalists, picking them up in their newsrooms and homes and from the streets. They were held in a central jail until April, 2002, when they threatened to begin a hunger strike to protest their detention. They were then transferred to an undisclosed location.

In neighboring Ethiopia, President Meles Zenawi, a member of Tony Blair’s Africa Commission, just held fraudulent elections. Anticipating public outrage, he banned street demonstrations for one month and assumed full control of the country’s security forces. When the opposition rallied to protest the results dribbling in, the police opened fire, killing 26; opposition leaders have been placed under house arrest. Witness the election machinations in Egypt.

The paucity of good leadership has left a garish stain on the continent. Worse, the caliber of leadership has distressingly deteriorated over the decades to execrable depths. The likes of Charles Taylor of Liberia and Sani Abacha of Nigeria even make Mobutu Sese Seko of formerly Zaire look like a saint. In an unusual editorial, The Independent newspaper in Ghana wrote: "Most of the leaders in Africa are power-loving politicians, who in uniform or out of uniform, represent no good for the welfare of our people. These are harsh words to use on men and women who may mean well but lack the necessary vision and direction to uplift the status of their people (The Independent, Ghana, July 20, 2000; p.2).

The crisis in leadership remains a major obstacle to poverty reduction and has many manifestations. It is characterized, among others, by the following dispositions and failings: The "Big Man" syndrome, subordination of national interests to personal aggrandizement, super-inflated egos, misplaced priorities, poor judgment, reluctance to take responsibility for personal failures, and total lack of vision and understanding of even such basic and elementary concepts as "democracy," "fairness," "rule of law," "accountability," and "freedom" -- among other deficiencies. In some instances, the leadership is given to vituperative utterances, outright buffoonery, stubborn refusal to learn from past mistakes, and complete absence of cognitive pragmatism.

Believing that their countries belong to them and only them only, they cling to power at all costs. Their promises are worth less than Al Cappone’s. They stipulate constitutional term limits and then break them: Angola, Chad, Gabon, Guinea, and Uganda. African leaders themselves drew up a New Economic Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD) in 2001, in which they inserted a Peer Review Mechanism (PRM), by which they were to evaluate the performance of fellow African leaders in terms of democratic governance. What happened? To be fair, they acted in reversing the “military coup” in Togo in February but went on vacation when elections were stolen in Zimbabwe and Togo.

Ask them to cut bloated state bureaucracies or government spending and they will set up a “Ministry of Less Government Spending.” Then there is the “Ministry of Good Governance” (Tanzania). They set up “Anti-Corruption Commissions” with no teeth and then sack the Commissioner if he gets too close to the fat cats (Kenya) or issue a Government White Paper to exonerate corrupt ministers (Ghana in 1996). To be sure, multi-party elections have been held in recent years in many African countries but the electoral process was so contumaciously manipulated to return incumbents to power. Four such “coconut elections” have so far been held this year: Zimbabwe, Togo, Congo (Brazzaville), and Ethiopia.

Ask them to place more reliance on the private sector and they will create a Ministry of Private Enterprise (Ghana). Ask them to privatize inefficient state-owned enterprises and they will sell them off at fire-sale prices to their cronies (Uganda). Or ask them to move a foot and they will demand foreign aid in order to do so. In 2003, some 30,000 ghost names were discovered on the payroll of the Ministry of Education, costing the government $1.2 million a month in salaries heisted by living workers. When Ghana demanded foreign aid to purge the payroll of these ghost names, Japan coughed up $5 million.

The reform process has stalled through vexatious chicanery, willful deception, and vaunted acrobatics. Only 16 out of the 54 African countries are democratic, fewer than 8 are “economic success stories,” only 8 have a free and independent media.

No amount of debt relief and increased aid will help Africa until Africa cleans up its own house. But the leadership is not interested in reform. Thus, without new leadership and genuine reform, debt relief and increased aid would compound Africa’s problems and more African countries will implode. The continent is stuck in a veritable conundrum. What can Western donors do?

Smart aid would do one of two things. One, bypass the vampire state and target the people, who produce Africa’s real wealth. An African economy consists of three sectors: the traditional, informal, and the modern sector. The people who produce Africa’s real wealth – cash crops, diamonds, gold and other minerals – live in the traditional and informal sectors. Meaningful development and poverty reduction cannot occur by ignoring these two sectors. But in the 1960s and 1970s, much Western development aid was channeled into the modern sector or the urban area, the abode of the parasitic elite minority. Industrialization was the rage and the two other sectors – especially agriculture – were neglected. Huge foreign loans were contracted to set up a dizzying array of state enterprises, which became towering edifices of gross inefficiency, waste and graft. Economic crises emerged in the 1980s and billions in foreign aid money were spent in an attempt to reform the dysfunctional modern sector. Between 1981 and 1994, for example, the World Bank spent more than $25 billion in Structural Adjustment loans to reform Africa’s dilapidated statist economic system. Only 6 out of the 29 “adjusting” African countries were adjudged to be “economic success stories” in 1994. Even then, the success list was phantasmagoric. Ghana, declared a “success story” in 1994, is now on HIPC life-support system.

At some point, even the most recklessly optimistic donor must come to terms with the law of diminishing returns: That pouring in more money to reform the modern sector is futile. Greater returns can be achieved elsewhere – by focusing on the traditional and informal sectors.

Second, smart aid would empower the African people (African civil society groups) to monitor how the aid money is being spent and to instigate reform from within. Empowerment requires arming the African people with information, the freedom and the institutional means to unchain themselves from the vicious grip of poverty and oppression.

Africa already has its own Charter of Human and Peoples’ Rights (the 1981 Banjul Charter), which recognizes the right to liberty and to the security of his person (Article 6); to receive information, to express and disseminate his opinions (Article 9); to free association (Article 10); to assemble freely with others (Article 11); and to participate freely in the government of his country, either directly or through freely chosen representatives in accordance with the provisions of the law (Article 13). Though the Charter enjoins African states to recognize these rights, few do so. When President Thabo Mbeki called on June 3, President Bush should have handed him a signed copy of this Charter to be delivered to President Robert Mugabe of ‘Zimbabwe.

The institutional tools Africans need are an independent central bank (to assure monetary stability and stanch capital flight), an independent judiciary (for the rule of law), a free and independent media (to ensure free flow of information), an independent Electoral Commission, an efficient and professional civil service, and a neutral and professional armed and security forces.

Recent events in Ukraine (November), Ghana (December), Zimbabwe (March), Lebanon (April), and Togo (April) unerringly underscore the critical importance of these institutions. Without them, President Bush’s plan to spread democracy may stall. Democracies are not built in a vacuum but in a “political space” in which the people can air their opinion, petition their government without being fired on by security forces and can choose who should rule them in elections that are rigged by electoral commissions packed with government goons.

On May 13, thousands of Egyptian judges, frustrated by government control over the judiciary, agitated for full independence from the executive in their oversight of the electoral process. “The institutions are presenting Mr. Mubarak with an unexpected challenge from within, one that will be difficult to dismiss. The fact is, major changes in this country are going to come out of those institutions, not from the streets," said Abdel Monem Said, director of the Ahram Center for Strategic Studies in Cairo.

In the past 24 years, Egypt has received more than $55 billion in U.S. aid in direct government-to-government transfers. Smart aid would assist civil society in instigating institutional reform. Since this approach carries some risks, the same objective can be achieved by funneling aid through diaspora Africans and their organizations, as was the case with Soviet dissidents during the Cold War.

Africa’s long term growth prospects do not lie in rock concerts and increased dependency on Western aid but on the ability of the African people or civil society groups to instigate reform from within. Assistance to such groups – both at home and abroad – constitutes much smarter aid to Africa than all the LIVE AID concerts Bob Geldof can organize.
______________

The writer, a native of Ghana, is a Distinguished Economist at American University and President of the Free Africa Foundation. His new book is Africa Unchained (Palgrave/MacMillan). This article is culled from his May 10 testimony before the Standing Committee on Foreign Relations of the Senate of Canada.

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EXCLUSIVE: Congressman Hunter Spills the Latest on the Debt Limit Debate

This is the sort of news that neither Fox nor memeorandum is reporting! I've been lucky the last couple days to corner both a Senator and a Congressman and get their thoughts regarding the debt limit- yesterday I wrote about what Senator Murkowski said (EXCLUSIVE: Senator Spills on the Latest on the Debt Limit)- today I'm going to pass on to you, my good readers, what Congressman Duncan Hunter (R, CA), told me today regarding the current debate about raising the debt ceiling.

According to Congressman Hunter, the situation looks grim. Cantor is pushing for $2 trillion in cuts and a corresponding increase in debt limit. The problem is that there are no real easy cuts to make- there is very little non-military discretionary spending in the budget and not enough to really close the gap, so any sort of real cuts will have to hit Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. “This is the budget today”, he said- the budget and purpose of the government has now simply become to redistribute wealth from those who work hard and produce wealth to those who don't. So in order to actually cut anything, you’d have to reform our entitlement programs. But the Democrats have drawn a line in the sand and refuse to do anything on the budget unless taxes are raised, and then after income taxes are raised, any entitlement reform will be 'in the future'- aka, passed on the future Congresses to really enact.

The biggest problem facing our nation is an utter lack of leadership in the office that is supposed to be providing the most leadership for our nation when it faces a crisis- the President. President Obama refused to released is a plan to Congress- something with numbers and words and written down that can be scored and marked up and analyzed. All Obama produces is rhetoric- in every meeting, he walks in with talking points and words and that's all. He has refused to actually take any sort of real stand or leadership on any issue facing our nation- the GOP keeps begging him to just release some sort of real hard numbers and something in writing, but he refuses because he thinks that if he takes any sort of positions on any issues it will damage him in the coming election.

“I really hope that after 2012 we will have an administration that will be more favorable towards moving legislation,” he said, pointing out also that the Democrats in the Senate have also completely abandoned any attempt to pass anything at all- Congressman Hunter says that “I don’t think the Senate is going to pass any budget on anything until after 2012”- he says that the reason why the Senate is refusing to even think about possibly considering passing any sort of budget is because it does not benefit them in any political sense- if the Democrats take any sort of stand on any important issue, they may be held accountable to voters and made to account on it.

So what is next, if we have a Democratic party that is refusing to take leadership and pass laws and face the real issues facing our nation. On this issue, sometime around August 1st to August 5th, the GOP- the party that controls 1/3 of the government and has controlled this institution for only a couple months- will have to step up and choose one of two options- agree to the Democrats plan, which, since they refuse to compromise will be basically lots of tax raises combined with empty promises to cut things in the future, or “hit rock bottom.”

“It is worth letting the market fluctuate for a short time if it means that our kids will have a market in the future,” Congressman Hunter said.

UPDATE: Thanks so much for linking to this story!

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Graph: US Employment to Population Ratio, Color-Coded by Party in Power, with Analysis

My love of graphs is legendary on my blog, and recently I came across an interesting graph on The Atlantic in an article called 8.6% Unemployment: The Good, the Bad, and the Mysterious in the Jobs Report. In it, there is a graph showing the current ratio between population and employment- that is, the relationship between the number of people in America who are around and the number of them who are gainfully employed. I believe it is a better and truer employment number than the phony 'unemployment' stat that is tossed around.

In order to get a better picture of what is going on, I colored coded the graph based on which political party controlled the various policy making institutions at the national level- yellow shading indicates that the GOP controlled the Presidency and Democrats the Congress, orange that control was GOP President/GOP Senate/Democrat House, red for GOP President/GOD Congress, dark blue for Democrat President/Democrat Congress, light blue for Democrat President/Democrat Senate/GOP House, and green for Democrat President/GOP Congress.

As you can see from the graph, the percentage of the population of citizens in our nation with a job has fluctuated in recent years from 56% to 65%. When more people have jobs, more goods and services are produced, more people have a sense of self-worth, and tax money to the government is higher, and these are all good things, so our goal is a higher percentage.

Based on this graph, there were previously considerable gains during earlier Democrat Presidents with Democrat Congresses- as bad as the Carter years were, 1976 to 1979 saw a sharp rise and so did 1993 to 1995. This sort of pattern should have predicted similar results from 2009 to 2011, but instead that time period saw the continued plunging of the line.

The worst drops came when Republicans controlled the White House and Democrats controlled Congress, such as from 2007 to 2009 or 1991 to 1993 or 1975 to 1977. This would suggest divided government is bad, especially when the Democrats control Congress, although I would point out that during a period of Democrat President and GOP Congress seems to be the longest and steadiest rise in the number, but this is only one data point, so I would take it with caution.

What about period when a Republican controlled the White House and Congress? The time period to look at for this would be 2001-2007, and on a lesser scale 1981-1987, and in spite of the recessions during these periods, we can see that the number does go up and down a bit but ends up roughly in the same place.

How does this data help up in 2012? Again, the data is not terribly helpful because it is rather inconclusive, but we can draw some conclusions from it. First, President Obama is utterly and flatly wrong to suggest that Republican policies always fail- the data here does not demonstrate that at all. Second, Republicans who suggest that Democratic policies always fail are also wrong- the data does not seem to suggest that either.

The data best suggests the conclusion that Republicans should control Congress- both the House and the Senate- because it is during those time periods, regardless of who the President was, that the American people seemed to be best off. Even the recent introduction of a little bit of GOP control of Congress- the House from 2011 to today- seems to have steadied the rate. This analysis though is heavily influenced by how bad Democrat control of Congress was from 2007 to 2011 and the steep drop in the population employment ratio during that time.

The data is less clear on the suggestion of which party should be in control of the White House. Carter and Clinton both rate well, but Obama rates poorly. Reagan rates well, Nixon and HW Bush and the first 6 years of W Bush were static, but those last two years of W Bush were poor. Therefore, the data suggest that Democrats may be better in the White House, but not Obama, he just sucks as President.

As much as it pains me to say this, this data suggests that the best possible scenario for the American people is for Obama to drop out of the race, Hillary Clinton to win the White House, and the GOP to win large governing majorities in the House and Senate. Since this scenario is unlikely, the next best thing is for the Republicans to win the White House and Congress. Worse than that is for Obama to be re-elected and the GOP to win Congress. The worse possible situation, admittedly based on those really bad results form 2009-2011, would be for Obama to win re-election and the Democrats to win Congress.

How does this analysis fit with other analysis that I have done? Pretty well, I think.

In Graph: Non-Defense Spending Relative to GDP, Color-Coded by Party in Power, or the Obama Hockey Stick, I noted this:
The conclusion that I draw is that Republicans keep federal defense spending as a share of GDP near the historical average when they are in power, but Democrats are more inconsistent- there was Clinton on one side of the ledger, and Carter and Obama on the other. In particular, Democrat Barack Obama is the worst President in the history of the United States when it comes to this measure.

The lesson here is more clear- under Democrats (control of Congress), non-defense spending increased at a greater percentage than GDP increased, and that giving Democrats total control of government (President and Congress) resulting in irresponsible explosions in non-defense spending and/or the collapse of the GDP. Putting Republicans in charge seems like the best bet- they keep this measure steady or decrease it, either by cutting spending or by increasing the GDP.
In Graph: U.S. Foreclosure Rates, Colored-Coded by Party in Power, I noted this:
My read of the graph is that the introduction of the variable of 'Democrat' in 2006 caused the situation to worsen, the bad situation was made worse by the election of Democratic President Obama, and it is still too soon to tell what sort of effect the GOP taking back 1/2 of Congress has had on the situation.
In Graph: Public Debt Over Time, Color-Coded by Party in Power, I wrote:
The conclusion that I have reached is that the party that controls Congress matters a lot more than the party that controls the Presidency in determining the amount of debt that our nation owes to the public. Under Republican Presidents, the debt went up and down by small amounts. Under Democrat Presidents, the debt decreased by a large amount and exploded by a large amount. But when you look at the party in control of Congress you see the largest changes in the amount of debt. Democrat control of Congress has been responsible for the most increases in the debt, while Republican control of Congress was responsible for the largest decreases and stability.

Based on this data, I suggest that next election you pay more attention to who you are voting for in Congress- we need to make sure that Republicans are in control of both the House and Senate by strong and sizable majorities. It is of lesser importance who controls the White House, although I would venture to guess that a Clinton Democrat is different enough than a radical Obama Democrat that in this upcoming election it does matter who is President, and it needs to be anyone other than Obama (a moderate Democrat or a Republican).
These analysis of recent data hopefully can better inform your choices in the coming election, and most importantly as is suggested in all four, President Barack Obama must not win re-election.

UPDATE: Loyal reader and subscriber Darryl emailed me and suggested that the reason for the increase in the population/employment ratio into the 1980's was the number of women entering the workforce during this time. He wrote about it further in his post Jobs, Prosperity, and Psychological Profiles. Check it out.

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Addressing the hard questions of African Debt

Franklin Cudjoe writes:

If African economies are to sustain their growth and lift millions of citizens out of poverty, as India and China have done, better fiscal discipline and financial governance are essential.
For too long, ordinary Africans have struggled to get ahead because of poor governance, corruption and a general lack of economic freedom; the G8 would only perpetuate these policies with its well-intentioned, yet ill-practiced policies on debt forgiveness. More than 90 percent of external debt of heavily indebted poor countries arises from official loans from creditors such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. Much of this debt has already been forgiven and paid for by Western taxpayers...[continue reading]

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Analysis of Obama's Speech: Straw Men and False Choices

Micheal Barone, writing for the Washington Examiner, from his article The Unhappy Warrior, best sums up President Barack Obama's much touted speech on jobs yesterday:

Barack Obama looked and sounded angry in his speech to the joint session of Congress. He bitterly assailed one straw man after another and made reference to a grab bag of proposals which would cost something on the order of $450 billion—assuring us on the one hand that they all had been supported by Republicans as well as Democrats in the past and suggesting that somehow they are going to turn the economy around. He called for further cuts in the payroll tax (which if continued indefinitely would undermine the case of Social Security as something people have earned rather than a form of welfare) and for a further extension of unemployment insurance (perhaps justifiable on humanitarian grounds, but sure to at least marginally raise the unemployment rate over what it would otherwise be). He called for a tax credit for hiring the long-term unemployed (unfortunately, these things can be gamed). He gave a veiled plug for his pet project of high-speed rail (a real dud) and for infrastructure spending generally (but didn’t he learn that there aren’t really any shovel-ready projects?). He called for a school modernization program (will it result in more jobs than the Seattle weatherization program that cost $22 million and produced 14 jobs?) and for funding more teacher jobs (a political payoff to the teacher unions which together with other unions gave Democrats $400 million in the 2008 campaign cycle). “We’ll set up an independent fund to attract private dollars and issue loans based on two criteria: how badly a construction project is needed and how much good it would do for the country.” Yeah, sure. Like the screening process that produced that $535,000,000 loan guarantee to now-bankrupt Solyndra. And Congress should pass the free trade agreements with Panama, Colombia and South Korea. Except that Congress can’t, because Obama hasn’t sent them up there yet in his 961 days as president.

Obama assured us that this would all be paid for. But as far as I could gather, he punted that part of it to the supercommittee of 12 members set up under the debt ceiling bill. He now blithely charges it with coming up with more than its current goal of $1.5 trillion in savings by Christmas. Oh, and he’s going to announce “a more ambitious deficit plan” that will “stabilize our debt in the long run”--11 days from now.

In the meantime, he called for higher taxes on “a few of the most affluent citizens”—as if this could pay for all the spending he’s been backing...

...Straw men took a terrible beating from the president. He assailed “tax loopholes” for oil companies, the chief one of which is that they are treated like other companies classified as manufacturers. The administration proposal is that the five largest oil companies shouldn’t be, because—well, because we want to get our hands on more of their money. Today’s Republicans, he gave us to understand, want to “eliminate most government regulations” and “wipe out the basic protections that Americans have counted on for decades.” And, he suggested, they would never have created public health schools or the G.I. Bill or research universities.

When Barack Obama says, “This isn’t political grandstanding,” you have a pretty good clue that that is exactly what it is. Lest anyone doubt that, consider this from the third-to-last paragraph. “You should pass it. And I intend to take that message to every corner of the country.”

In other words, this was a campaign speech...
When I asked my students what they thought of Obama's speech, they said it sounded good but that they wanted to see the details and felt that the price tag for this sort of 'jobs bill' was going to be way too high for our nation to afford. The students also thought that this sort of stuff has already been tried and did nothing to help and only added more debt to our nation- you see, young people frequently are concerned with the amount of debt that older people are dumping on them to live their wonderful lifestyles of leisure and retirement. Hearing comments like these give me hope for our future; on the other hand, my students are being trained to think and reason and look at things critically and are less apt to fall for the straw man and false choice rhetoric that has come to characterize the President's speeches.

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A Record December to Remember for Obama Deficit

The U.S. government ran a budget deficit of $91.8 billion alone in the month of December 2009. That is a record- for comparison, even during the last year of Bush's Presidency as he spent money like water to deal with the banking crisis, the federal deficit for December 2008 was $51.7 billion- $40.1 billion less than Obama's deficit.

This deficit marked the 15th straight month in which the U.S. government added to the federal debt by having outlays exceeded receipts, the Treasury Department reported. President Obama has been President for 12 of those 15 months.

The December figures bring to $388.5 billion the deficit for the first three months of Washington's 2010 fiscal year. That's on top of a staggering $1.4 trillion budget shortfall for fiscal 2009, more than three times the size of the deficit that the government ran in 2008. At this current pace with no further major spending initiatives, the federal deficit is on a pace to hit $1.554 trillion in fiscal year 2010. That would mean that in Obama's first two years as President he would have added almost $3 trillion dollars to the federal debt, and this does not include further spending initiatives like the healthcare bill (another trillion in debt), more 'stimulus bills' (billions more in debt), or increases in military spending (billions more).

A very small part of the reason for this stunning deficit is the slight drop in revenue due to the destroyed economy under the Democrats control- year ago in December, receipts were $238 billion but receipts were just $219 billion in December. That is a loss of $19 billion in revenue, on top of an increase in spending of $21 billion.

President Obama and the Democrats are hoping that their policies of spending even more money, raising taxes and fees, putting in place more regulations, increasing the unions power in our nation, and giving great speeches about fighting the deficit will lead to a reversal of this utter destruction of the United States of America.

Data for this story was pulled from this Wall Street Journal article.

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