"To plan secretly,to move surreptitiously, to foil the enemy's intentions and balk his schemes, so that at last the day may be won without shedding a drop of blood"- that is how Sun Tzu described how to win in warfare. Further, Sun Tzu wrote this about the Art of War:
It is through the dispositions of an army that its condition may be discovered. Conceal your dispositions, and your condition will remain secret, which leads to victory,; show your dispositions, and your condition will become patent, which leads to defeatOne of my degrees is in International Relations and just recently I was talking to some of my high school students about the United States policies with regard to the use of nukes. The one that they were the most fascinated by was the policy of Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD).
Via wikipedia, Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) is a doctrine of military strategy and national security policy in which a full-scale use of nuclear weapons by two opposing sides would effectively result in the destruction of both the attacker and the defender. In theory, by adopting this policy in which your nation is prepared to destroy everything if attacked, it will deter your enemy from attacking you since he'll be terrified that you might just be insane enough to blow up everything rather than just lose the war. The strategy is effectively a form of Nash equilibrium, in which both sides are now forced to entertain the possibly that the worst possible outcome of a nuclear attack- the nuclear annihilation of the world- is now on the table if one side attacks the other.
I've always felt that MAD is an insane policy- but its very insanity is what made it work- I mean, no country in their right mind would be willing to destroy the world rather than just get nuked. But a nutty one might, and you have to respect that crazy will to win, and in this case, the fear of MAD just may have played a role in deterring nuclear attacks on the United States during the height of the Cold War.
After 9/11, the United States adopted a similar policy towards nations that might support or encourage terrorist attacks on our own nation, stating that we would respond with nuclear attacks if any nation in the world attacked us using chemical or biological weapons. Once that genie gets out of the bottle, it will be hard to put back in, and terrorist groups around the world would be unleashing deadly chemical and biological weapons on our innocent civilians here. Bush said that if a nation helped or supported something like that, they would be wiped out.
That policy was an insane and totally disproportionate response- but that's why it works. Nations know that we would never nuke them if they gave a terrorist group some chemical to release into the water supply of a major city, killings thousands... but maybe we would. Maybe we're just that crazy, especially with a wild card cowboy like Bush at the helm. Americans are nutty- the whole world knows this- and don't think rationally or act normal like other countries. Perhaps we might use those nukes.
Except now, we won't. Faced with no threats, under pressure from no one, with no barbarian invaders on the horizon, our nation willingly disarms and lays down our arms and our threats and our deterrents in a sad and stupid belief that this will lead to a better world. The threat of MAD saved millions, and the threat of wild American nukes lobbed at terrorist nations might have saved thousands, but now, that threat is off the table.
"We're a nice sane nation just like any other nation, no different than France or Germany, and now you can beat us soundly if you just test our defenses," we now tell our enemies. "Chemical and biological attack us- it will make us upset and we'll think long and hard about it, call for a months long review, and then allow a smaller attack than the ones that the Republicans want, but will pull out soon," is our new policy. "We're not insane, we're totally rational, and thus, rational calculations about our political will to do what is done will hold true." Our new administration announces.
President Obama is expected to announce soon that he will restrict US nuclear weapons use, even in self-defense. According to the Times Online, he will announce the new doctrine that the US will no longer threat the use of nukes in response to biological or chemical attacks on our nation. President Obama wasn't briefed on the U.S. nuclear-strike plans until some months after he had taken office, and when he found out about these policies that my high school students study, "he thought it was insane," says sources. Soon after, he decided that nuclear weapons would be taken off the table and no longer be an option that we would consider as a deterrent, and now is telling anyone who will listen this new policy change.
Obama is hoping that he will be showered with accolades and the world will all say what a great person he is. But the truth of the matter is that he made this decision with very little thought or understanding of warfare. So what if you think it is insane and you pull the option off the table- that's nice. Just don't tell anyone about it. Then the 'insane' option is gone, the world is a nicer place, but the deterrent remains. The only reason you go ahead and announce this policy change is not to improve or help the security of the United States, but to lessen and hurt the security of the United States in order to be showered with praise by other world leaders, world leaders who might possibly mean the United States harm and no longer be deterred by our crazy nuclear policies.
Obama has once again made the world just a little more unsafe for democracy and showed once again why the American people really need to be more careful about who they elect President.
For more commentary, be sure to check out Belmont Club's post Unthinking the unthinkable.
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