Dangers of Commodity Dependency-Trouble in Botswana

Botswana is facing change. Its diamond bonanza, which accounts for nearly half the government’s revenue and over a third of its GDP, will not last much longer. Production has peaked and deposits may be exhausted by 2030. Growth has been slowing from an average annual rate of 13% in the first five years after independence to 5% in 2000-05 and 3% since then, including a 5% contraction in 2009-10. Last year it bounced back to 7% and is expected to remain at about that level for the next two years. But the government may not be able to keep spending at its present level of 40% of GDP.
For the first time since independence, the budget is in deficit. The World Bank has urged the government to slash its bloated public workforce by a quarter. But Mr Khama is resisting. With an official jobless rate of 17% (and a real one probably closer to 30%), he says he is loth to turf more people out of jobs. But neither, he insists, can Botswana go on living beyond its means.