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State of the Union Address 2012 Post: Notes and Comments from A Conservative Teacher

Here are my notes and thoughts as I watched President Barack Obama's 2012 State of the Union address:

  • All of the conversation on the channels prior to the address centered on how this address is going to be used as a way to launch the President's re-election bid and as a taxpayer financed campaign speech. I've been watching these things for years and although past incumbents running for re-election have used this speech to speak about all their accomplishments, President Obama appears to be the most brazenly partisan in using this speech as a campaign speech.
  • I found a list of past 'special guests' who have been invited by the President- Lenny Skutnik in 1982 (saved passanger from drowning plane), Sammy Sosa in 1999 (relief efforts in Dominican Republic and home run chase), Hamid Karzai in 2002 (Afghanistan President), Julie Aigner-Clark in 2007 (founder of Baby Einstein)... and now Warren Buffet's secretary in 2012 (prop to use to try to bring up point of taxing the rich more). Whereas once President's (both Republican and Democrats) celebrated people who had done things, President Obama celebrates someone who has called on other people to do more things (pay more money) and yet has no real accomplishments of her own (no offense- I'm sure she is a fine person).
  • It was amazing and wonderful to see Congresswomen Giffords there- she has made such a great recovery and I wish her the best on her future.
  • President Obama begins with his foreign policy accomplishments, which he can take credit for, although he should share this credit with George W. Bush, who put in place the foundations and background for many of these accomplishments (the pull-out in Iraq, the groundwork for catching Osama, drones and catching terrorists in the War on Terror, etc).
  • Obama next suggests that private citizens should be more like the military and act as soldiers for the state. Citizens should stop fighting one another, stop disagreeing about the direction of the nation, stop pushing for their individual rights and liberties, stop trying to keep their property and the fruits of their labor, and instead citizens should serve the state, citizens should put aside their differences and just follow orders, and people should give up their wealth and property to the state so that it can redistribute it to those people who it favors. This all sounds vaguely familiar and has strong echo's of fascism in it, although I could sugar-coat it if you'd like.
  • In 2008, the 'house of cards collapsed'- banks made loans they shouldn't have (which he pushed for a community activist), regulators didn't do their jobs (which they were not held accountable for), bonuses were paid to these banks and government agencies (to which they were never held accountable for)... he is on the wrong side of the ledger here- he was pushing for the collapse and after the collapse did not hold those people accountable.
  • "State of the Union is getting stronger"- as if the mounting US debt is to be ignored and we're all just to pretend that trillions of dollars in my children's spending is not damaging the foundations of our nation and creating a time-bomb that will destroy America.
  • President Obama says that he can't get anything done without control of every single aspect of our political system- he decries the 'obstructionism' of the GOP controlling one single house of Congress. No one- no one- should ever be elected President who says that he can't get anything done unless he has total power- that is bad for America and bad for democracy.
  • "What is happening in Detroit can happen in other industries"- what happened in Detroit was that the auto companies were bailed out, costing taxpayers $80 billion in loans, debts forgiven, pensions guaranteed, and other loans. GM made $6 billion last year in profits- taxpayers should get that back, plus the next $74 billion in profits, and then we'll claim success in saving a company at no cost. Imagine if he were to bail every unprofitable business out at massive losses to taxpayers- what would that sort of economy look like?
  • Proposes new tax on multi-national companies, to be redistributed to companies that 'hire here in America'- some sort of new loan to be administered by Obama officials based on conditions that he'd set. The increased taxes on MNC's will be sure to be passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices on goods and services, causing inflation and hitting the poor especially hard. Why does Obama hate poor people so much?
  • "We brought trade cases against China at over twice the rate as the previous administration"- but the Chinese just laughed at us because Obama bowed to the Chinese President and begged to borrow trillions more of their money so that he could blow it on his wasteful spending. It's nice that he's suing China though- I'm sure that's employing lots of lawyers.
  • President Obama is mystified on why employers don't hire workers- perhaps if he would have had some sort of a job at some point in business or in the private sector or in some sort of productive economic enterprise he'd know that increasing regulations, fees, requirements, red tape, and the such encourage employers not to hire.
  • Obama proposes starting a temp agency company... with taxpayer money. This government financed and supported company will compete with all of these Michigan companies.
  • Obama is right- good teachers like me matter, and also he's right that teachers like me are attacked all the time- I'm bashed by liberals and progressives who call me all sorts of names. The President's other education policies are pretty- they are nice words that mean nothing since the federal government isn't supposed to be involved in education in any way other than making sure that there is equality in education for different races and sexes (Elementary and Secondary Education Act of 1965).
  • It is almost as if the right answer to everything that Obama says is the opposite of what he says. He says that it is wrong for taxpayers to be giving illegal immigrants a paid education and then sending them home at the end- he suggests we should make these people here illegally citizens after investing all that money into them, while I kind of think that taxpayers shouldn't be investing money into people here illegally. Get a work or education visa or something to stay here or pay your own way.
  • President Obama attacks inequality in pay between mean and women in work- that's right Obama, tear this straw man up! That straw man can't fight back- I suggest he go after those who want children to work in coal mines next!
  • I followed this line... "need more bullet proof vests... computers chips... innovations... industries... energy..." what???
  • President Obama claims that our nation needs an "all out all of the above strategy"- it's double-speak though, because in his next line he clarifies that this strategy means less oil, less natural gas, less coal, and less drilling. His 'all of the above' strategy is going to include additional fees, regulations, and rules on companies that he doesn't like. So, in summary, he is pitching a "some of the below strategy".
  • On to exploding batteries discussion... Bryan (the guy Obama referenced) used to build luxury yachts, but when government policies that Obama supported (he wanted a higher tax on yachts) destroyed Bryan's company and industry, Obama was there to throw taxpayer dollars at him to get him restarted building taxpayer subsidized wind turbines, and now Obama is some sort of 'good guy.' He's the bad guy in the story, kiddies. Holland-based Energetx Composites LLC, you just got mentioned by Obama in his State of the Union address- that's the kiss of death.
  • Proposed more small fees and regulations and burdens on businesses... I missed what sort of scheme it was supposed to pay for in order to be 'budget neutral'.
  • I'm caught up now... "we need smart regulations"... "we need rules"... these rules and regulations "make the free market more free"- LOL. Did he just say "I've ordered thousands of federal agents to spend thousands of man-hours to search for useless regulations that waste taxpayer money"- I must have heard this wrong. He's moving on though to proposing new rules and regulations- I guess he was done with the part about getting rid of regulations and rules after he threw the joke out there. Listening to him talk, I feel like he's a joke of a President.
  • Someone add up how much all these regulations, agencies, bureau's, rules, and investments are going to cost America... I'll have to look at the transcript, but I'm pretty sure all he does is to propose these things without any sense of cost. A man (or woman) could spend a hundred years undoing all the damage that this guy is doing to our Republic.
  • "The recovery is still fragile"- but earlier he said the "State of the Union is getting stronger"- let's square this round issue, folks.
  • Did you know that President Obama has cut the deficit $2 trillion? And not raised it $5 trillion like what really happened? BIZARRO WORLD!
  • Let's not forget this people- President Obama hates people earning millions and wants to go after them and confiscate their income redistribute it to people making less. Those who are already wealthy can keep it, those who are on the bottom might like it, but there will be no more moving between classes in Obama's America. This guy wants to slap class systems on us and turn our nation into the rich- those who already made their wealth and who have connections with government- and the rest of us poor. "You can call this class warfare all you want" he says- it's class warfare. It's class warfare. It's class warfare. It's class warfare. It's class warfare...
  • The partisan divide is getting worse every year he says... especially over the past 3 years. It must be George Bush's fault or something, right? Or maybe it's because you President Obama are the most bitterly partisan figure in the history of our nation and is tearing our nation into serfs and masters. President Obama attacks running a 'perpetual campaign'- but yet he is the worst offender in this, running continually for office in a way that no President in history has ever done, running campaign commercials a year in advance of the general election, and even trotting out his wife to make frequent partisan attacks.
  • He just said-"With or without this Congress I will keep implementing laws and putting in place policies that I want, but if Congress went along with what I was already doing it would give me cover and get us all involved." This guy is a bully and a dictator. Maybe I heard him wrong though; I'll go back and re-read the transcript, maybe I got it wrong.
  • The speech must be coming to an end- after spending a couple minutes in the beginning to address our military and veterans, we're now going to end with a couple minutes at the end about the military and veterans- I though think that the military shouldn't just be props in Obama's game of 'we're all in this together' meme; maybe he should talk about military programs in the body of his speech that he wants to cut or increase, about what he's been doing as commander-in-chief, etc. The military is not simply there to make Obama look good. "No one thought about politics on that day" Obama says- but yet the photo of Obama in the war room was staged. Nice words Obama, but in your mouth, they are just words, merely words.
  • President Obama says that as long as we are all commoners, living like peasants on the land, serving our masters like serfs, than our nation will be strong. He said 'common' several times at the end- but private property, liberty, and protection of life wasn't mentioned.
This is not my first State of the Union address. In A Conservative Teacher's Take on the State of the Union Address in 2011, I wrote a bunch of notes down, and looking through those notes now I am struck by how much more moderate Obama was in 2011 (still a liberal, but no way was he the progressive class warfare leader he was in this speech). In many ways, it was closer to what I noted in my Best State of the Union Address Ever in 2010 post- that Obama was divisive and partisan.

Last thoughts on President Barack Obama- he is getting better. His speech was better delivered, he is getting better at not being as obvious with his attacks on straw men, he isn't as bitter or angry, and his vision of the future is a very narrow one. If he sticks to his game- that the Republicans are a bigger threat to our nation than even he is- and he is able to use his billion dollars to unload on Republicans who have negatives in their past, than he is going to win re-election. He's going to go defense, play small-ball, shrink back into his base, and attack savagely against flaws and faults in his opponents- and win power again, this time unrestrained by a second term. The GOP better be really careful who they nominate in the primaries- nominate the wrong person, and we get 4 more years of this kind of speech.

Governor Daniels gave the GOP reply. He talked about the role of the opposition in our nation (I hope he sends a memo to the President explaining this role, since obviously the President doesn't respect minority rights). Daniels argues that the nation has not gotten better under Obama's watch- this is hard to argue with, especially because Daniels points to facts, figures, and data. I wonder though- will facts and information be able to counter rhetoric and personal attacks in this new era of American politics? "Those punished most by the wrong turns of the past three years"- that's a good line. Also, I see Daniels has been reading my blog- see my recent post Unemployment Increases in Young People Under Obama: A New Lost Generation of Youth?.

"2012 is a year of true opportunity, maybe our last, to restore hope and prosperity"- that's a good line too from Governor Mitch Daniels. I'll be honest- the more this guy talks, the more I like him- why again did this guy not run for President? The first thing that Daniels tells a businessman in Indiana- "make money!"- that's great, and the opposite of what Obama would say to him- "let's see your site plan and evaluate it for possible environmental threats" Obama would say. Even Daniels though notices that America is declining- I guess it's now either explode in debt and inflation and collapse under Obama, or decline and manage under the Republicans- that choice sucks and I'm pissed at the generations ahead of me that messed things up for me and my children- you who left the world a lesser place with your voting and policies, you're parasites. I should pay low taxes and get great benefits, like you all got a chance to do, but not only that, I'm going to pay higher taxes and get less benefits, because you all lived beyond your means- I'm a little angry at that.

Opps, back to Daniels speech... Daniels ends strongly fighting for unity, solvency, financial stability, steady economic growth, and responsible reforms- this is a message that only smart, responsible, hard-working people care about, and may not sell anymore in Obama's America. Daniels still believes in us though- he thinks that we can still be great- I got to give it to him for still believing and having hope in the American people and our ability to be free, prosperous, happy, mature, and successful. Let's draft this guy to run for President or something- he's better than Mitt or Newt.

UPDATE I: Let me clarify something- after listening to his speech, I thought that Daniels was better than both Romney or Newt (the two frontrunner's), and for the matter he is better than Santorum or Paul. That being said, it was one speech and in retrospect I'd need to look at his entire body of work and watch him on the campaign trail before truly suggesting that he should be the nominee. After all, I heard Perry give a great speech and thought that he was the best of the bunch running- and then he went out and was unable to communicate the message and stay focused. Besides- almost all states have already finalized their ballots, so Daniels wouldn't even be able to get on the ballots to be the nominee.

It's Mitt or Newt or Santorum, and we'll have to live with those choices- the good news is that all of these people are better than Barry for America, the bad news of which is that none of them is the perfect candidate. I guess Daniels will still be out there in 2016 after Obama's second term, not that it will matter anymore at that point.

To bring it back full circle- what you heard in Obama's speech tonight was a long laundry list of additional spending, and if this wasn't the real world and money grew on trees, it might have been an okay list of things to spend money on. But the thing is our nation is in debt and structurally is going bankrupt. That's the thing. There is no other thing right now. President needed to deliver a speech that spoke to slashing programs and spending and putting in place structural reforms- the kind of real, hard, tough decisions that we all  have made in our private and business finances and that other nations are now being forced to make. But he didn't. President Obama can sing and dance and shoot rainbows and speak about how he has spent trillions saving industries, but all of that is just twisted and wrong, because he is spending my children and grandchildren's money in an irresponsible manner, and that's what matters in 2012. He needs to go, now, before he can do any more damage to the future of our great nation.

UPDATE II: So far, the best summary/review of the President's SOTU is from Nile Gardiner, writing from across the pond. From his editorial Barack Obama is still driving America towards decline:
Two words hardly mentioned in Barack Obama’s 65-minute State of the Union address to Congress: freedom and liberty. President Obama’s fourth and possibly last State of the Union speech was long on big government proposals, but short on the principles that have made America the world’s greatest power. His lecturing tone exuded arrogance, and he failed to present a coherent vision for getting the United States back on its feet after three years of economic decline. It was heavy on class-war rhetoric, punitive taxation, and frequent references to the Left-wing mantra of “fairness”, hardly likely to instil confidence in a battered business community that is the lifeblood of the American economy.

Above all, he remains in denial over the levels of federal debt that threaten the country's long-term prosperity. This was not a speech that was serious about the biggest budget deficits since World War Two. There was no sense at all that America is a superpower on a precipice, sinking in a sea of debt that threatens to undermine America’s power to project global leadership for generations to come. In fact, his interventionist proposals will only make matters worse.

From new federally funded infrastructure projects to increasing regulations on financial institutions, President Obama remains wedded to big government – an approach rejected by a clear majority of Americans, who view it as a millstone around their necks. As Gallup’s polling has found, nearly two thirds of Americans see big government as "the biggest threat" to their country.

This should have been a serious speech addressing the economic problems facing the United States. Instead it was a laundry list of half-baked proposals designed to appease the Left. The president should have been talking about reining in spending, lowering taxes, and fostering greater economic freedom, but he opted for policies that will speed America’s decline, not reverse it....
Read the whole thing- he nailed it.

UPDATE III: Thank you for linking to this article The Western Experience, The Bitter Americans, and others!

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The Fuel Subsidy Removal Protests for Dummies

Jeremy Weate writes:
...the lived reality of citizens of the Nigerian state is that it provides little or no security, no infrastructure, no education and no employment opportunities (apart from mostly McJobs in the civil service). Everywhere in Nigeria, the basic elements of civilised existence have to be taken care of house-by-house, compound-by-compound. You must sink your own borehole for water, buy, install and fuel a generator for power, hire security guards to keep the wolves from the door, pay school fees to ensure your kids get a half-decent education because the public school system is in perpetual meltdown. And to earn enough money to get through the day, you must hustle.

The breakdown of a standard tax and political representation based social contract between citizens and the state in Nigeria is almost entirely a result of the past few decades of the so-called ‘resource curse’. Earning billions of dollars each year from crude exports, the Nigerian government has no need to rely on tax from individuals or local companies; tax and royalty payments from the international oil companies (as well as historically, loans from international financial institutions) have been sufficient to fund the annual budget at all levels of government. For the past few decades, cheap fuel has therefore been the only form of social contract between ordinary Nigerians and the state and the principle lever to control inflation during times of rising oil prices. With most Nigerians subsisting on US$2 or less, subsidised fuel has also been a survival mechanism, making life only just bearable.
More here

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The 1936 GOP Platform Gives Clues on How to Battle a Depression-Extending Progressive

Although I am no expert in this, I have always felt that the 1930's were an interesting time period in our nation. The Victorian age had come to a bloody conclusion with World War One, and a whole generation of people were now being raised in a society that saw their parents as failures- their attempts to repress their sexual urges, their attempts to stick to the old ways, their attempts to put in place world peace, their attempts to build multinational nations- all had led to one of the most bloody and brutal and worthless wars of all time. Technology was changing fast- cars and telephones and radio and motion picture- and the children of the 1910's and 1920's thought that they had everything figured out- they thought that where other generations had failed due to their reliance on religion, traditional values, free markets, republicanism, and limited government, they would succeed by figuring out a third way of doing things, a practical way of doing things, a way of doing things that used the power of government to make society a better place to live. This new generation, horrified by WWI and mocking their parents lack of technology skills, had it all figured out, and ushered in an era of fascism and communism and World War Two.

In my post 1930's Are Root of All That is Wrong I cataloged all of the laws that were passed in the 1930's in America that are with us today- such as the Unemployment Compensation Tax (MI, 1936), Oil and Gas Severance Tax (MI, 1929), Social Security Act (USA, 1935), Fair Labor Standards Act (USA, 1938), Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act (USA, 1930), Hoover Tax Hike (USA, 1932), National Labor Relations Act (USA, 1935), Private Schools, Act 302 of 1921 (MI, 1921), Roosevelt moves traditional Thanksgiving Day (1939), Regulating Firearms, Act 373 (MI, 1927), US moves off gold standard (1933), Reapportionment Act (USA, 1929), etc. Looking through that list and thinking of how much America was changed by one generation, by one President, by one party, by one decade (mostly), I was always stunned, and wondered how people had let that come to pass.

As it turns out, the Republican Party of 1936 had put together a platform to oppose a lot of these fascist ideas, but people loved their hope and change and returned FDR to the White House instead, and so the Great Depression dragged on for another decade. Via Conservative Hideout, let's take a walk back in history and see just exactly what the GOP was offering as an alternative back then to the high taxes, high regulation, crony capitalism, fascist third way system that FDR was pushing our nation into. Here is a good chunk of the 1936 Republican Party Platform:

1936 Republican Party PlatformAmerica is in peril. The welfare of American men and women and the future of our youth are at stake. We dedicate ourselves to the preservation of their political liberty, their individual opportunity and their character as free citizens, which today for the first time are threatened by Government itself.

For three long years the New Deal Administration has dishonored American traditions and flagrantly betrayed the pledges upon which the Democratic Party sought and received public support. The powers of Congress have been usurped by the President... the rights and liberties of American citizens have been violated... regulated monopoly has displaced free enterprise.... it has intimidated witnesses and interfered with the right of petition... it has been guilty of frightful waste and extravagance, using public funds for partisan political purposes... it has promoted investigations to harass and intimidate American citizens, at the same time denying investigations into its own improper expenditures... it has created a vast multitude of new offices, filled them with its favorites, set up a centralized bureaucracy, and sent out swarms of inspectors to harass our people.... it has bred fear and hesitation in commerce and industry, thus discouraging new enterprises, preventing employment and prolonging the depression.... appeals to passion and class prejudice have replaced reason and tolerance.

To a free people, these actions are insufferable. This campaign cannot be waged on the traditional differences between the Republican and Democratic parties. The responsibility of this election transcends all previous political divisions. We invite all Americans, irrespective of party, to join us in defense of American institutions. We pledge ourselves:

...To preserve the American system of free enterprise, private competition, and equality of opportunity, and to seek its constant betterment in the interests of all.

The only permanent solution of the unemployment problem is the absorption of the unemployed by industry and agriculture. To that end, we advocate: Removal of restrictions on production. Abandonment of all New Deal policies that raise production costs, increase the cost of living, and thereby restrict buying, reduce volume and prevent reemployment. Encouragement instead of hindrance to legitimate business. Withdrawal of government from competition with private payrolls. Elimination of unnecessary and hampering regulations. Adoption of such other policies as will furnish a chance for individual enterprise, industrial expansion, and the restoration of jobs.

Society has an obligation to promote the security of the people, by affording some measure of protection against involuntary unemployment and dependency in old age. The New Deal policies, while purporting to provide social security, have, in fact, endangered it. We propose a system of old age security, based upon the following principles: 1. We approve a pay-as-you-go policy, which requires of each generation the support of the aged and the determination of what is just and adequate, 2. Every American citizen over sixty-five should receive the supplementary payment necessary to provide a minimum income sufficient to protect him or her from want. 3. Each state and territory, upon complying with simple and general minimum standards, should receive from the federal government a graduated contribution in proportion to its own, up to a fixed maximum....

...Nearly sixty percent of all imports into the United States are now free of duty. The other forty percent of imports compete directly with the product of our industry. We would keep on the free list all products not grown or produced in the United States in commercial quantities. As to all commodities that commercially compete with our farms, our forests, our mines, our fisheries, our oil wells, our labor and our industries, sufficient protection should be maintained at all times to defend the American farmer and the American wage earner from the destructive competition emanating from the subsidies of foreign governments and the imports from low-wage and depreciated-currency countries....

...We recognize the existence of a field within which governmental regulation is desirable and salutary. The authority to regulate should be vested in an independent tribunal acting under clear and specific laws establishing definite standards. Their determinations on law and facts should be subject to review by the Courts. We favor Federal regulation, within the Constitution, of the marketing of securities to protect investors. We favor also Federal regulation of the interstate activities of public utilities...

...We pledge ourselves to the merit system, virtually destroyed by New Deal spoilsmen. It should be restored, improved and extended. We will provide such conditions as offer an attractive permanent career in government service to young men and women of ability, irrespective of party affiliations.

The New Deal Administration has been characterized by shameful waste, and general financial irresponsibility. It has piled deficit upon deficit. It threatens national bankruptcy and the destruction through inflation of insurance policies and savings bank deposits. We pledge ourselves to: Stop the folly of uncontrolled spending. Balance the budget—not by increasing taxes but by cutting expenditures, drastically and immediately. Revise the federal tax system and coordinate it with state and local tax systems. Use the taxing power for raising revenue and not for punitive or political purposes.

We advocate a sound currency to be preserved at all hazards. The first requisite to a sound and stable currency is a balanced budget. We oppose further devaluation of the dollar. We will restore to the Congress the authority lodged with it by the Constitution to coin money and regulate the value thereof by repealing all the laws delegating this authority to the Executive....

...We assume the obligations and duties imposed upon Government by modern conditions. We affirm our unalterable conviction that, in the future as in the past, the fate of the nation will depend, not so much on the wisdom and power of government, as on the character and virtue, self-reliance, industry and thrift of the people and on their willingness to meet the responsibilities essential to the preservation of a free society.

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Obama Pressuring Banks to Give High Risk Loans to Poor and Minorities

As we learn more about the financial meltdown of 2008, it becomes increasingly apparent that one of the main causes for this economic disaster was government policy that forced banks to extend loans to those people who were unable to pay those back. Government agents put pressure on banks and government banking institutions like Freddie/Franny to give loans to people who under normal circumstances would be unable to pay back these loans and who were especially unable to protect themselves from the exposure to risk that these loans entailed. Misguided government policies ambushed innocent people who believed the dream that politicians peddled and banks were coerced into following, and in 2008 the house of cards came crashing down and peoples lives were ruined. It was not the failure of the markets, the lack of government policy on the issue, evil rich people, George W Bush, or the Republicans who were the minority party in Congress at the time- it was government policy that put pressure on banks that led to the collapse in 2008.

And the lesson apparently was not learned by the Democrats.

From Townhall's Bob Beauprez comes this stunning mind-blowing information:

The Department of Justice is executing a "Witch Hunt" against banks. Through the DOJ's Civil Rights Division, Attorney General Eric Holder is forcing banks to "relax their mortgage underwriting standards and approve loans for minorities with poor credit as part of a new crackdown on alleged discrimination," according to a published report by Investor's Business Daily after reviewing court documents.

The DOJ has already extorted $20 million for weak and poor credit loans from banks that "settled out of court rather than battle the federal government and risk being branded racist." The DOJ admits another 60 banks are already under "investigation." Holder's demanding the banks sign "non-disclosure" settlement agreements barring them from talking while allowing the DOJ to operate behind a curtain of secrecy.

The settlements already extracted from banks force them to make "prime-rate mortgages to low income blacks and Hispanics" with credit problems, even if they are living on welfare. According to IBD, the DOJ has ordered banks to advertise that minorities cannot be turned down for a loan "because they receive public aid, such as unemployment benefits, welfare payments or food stamps." No job; no problem!

In other words, the DOJ is forcing banks to make loans to people that they know don't qualify for them and likely won't be able to afford to repay them, which is precisely the kind of failed public policy that precipitated the financial collapse and recession in 2008.
Can you believe it? Obama took an economy that was going through a usual recession, killed the recovery, set us up for a double-dip recession, and is now working on creating another epic economic collapse!

Read the whole analysis- it'll really scare you!

For more on the background of the Great Recession and how Obama plans to recreate it with his policies, check out The Great American Bank Robbery: The Unauthorized Report About What Really Caused the Great Recession or A Decade of Delusions: From Speculative Contagion to the Great Recession.

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An Inflexion Point for African Growth?

In The FT:
“The question for executives at consumer packaged goods companies is no longer whether their firms should enter the region, but where and how,” A.T. Kearney, the management consultancy, wrote in recent research that found west African subsidiaries achieving nearly twice the profit margins of their parent groups. Other research amassing at investment banks and international financial institutions highlights the potential for Africa – or at least parts of it – to become a significant driver of global economic expansion in coming years.
No one sensible believes that the road will be smooth for all of sub-Saharan Africa. But in almost every sector demand outstrips supply. “The reality is Africa is probably 30 years behind China and 20 years behind India on the developmental curve in that regard, so I think the Chinese and Indians will start to look at parts of Africa as potential sites for low-cost manufacturing and outsourcing and things like that,” says Michael Lalor of Ernst & Young.
More here

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Nigeria's Zimbabwen Farmers

How We Made It Africa spotlights expatriate farmers from Zimbabwe in an interview:
courtesy of how we made it in Africa
Give us an overview of the current situation at your farm?

At present we have 400 hectares of cassava in the land, growing well due to recent rains. We now also have six boreholes in place, plus a holding dam.
Irrigation is key to our project but there have been many delays in this area.
The promise of a constant electricity supply has not yet materialised, although there are many electrical poles and wires on our farm.
Finance is also still a problem. We battle to get the financial institutions to understand the concept of short-, medium- and long-term loans and the real need to have finance before the rainy season starts. We are geared up to plant another 300 hectares in 2010 and just need the finance to do it.
Read the rest of the interview here
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Building up the Informal Economies and the role of Remittances

Sanou Mbaye writing in Project Syndicate:

He speaks on the need to liberalize the remittance channels:

The effects of banks’ hijacking of national payment systems to service only the modern economy are compounded by the exclusive agreements that banks and money-transfer companies such as Western Union have signed with most African countries. These agreements lock out non-banking entities from the highly lucrative market for migrant remittances from the African diaspora, which remain a key engine of growth
Furthermore on how key it is to nourish the informal economies:
African states must now recognize that modernizing their informal sectors by integrating them into the modern economy can be a major development tool. Yet only a few countries have started moving in that direction. Nigeria has refrained from signing any exclusive agreements with Western Union and others, and its newly consolidated banking industry is making significant inroads across the region...
Arguing for the broader inclusion of more financial actors in national payment systems
Giving micro-finance institutions access to national and regional payments systems and electronic retail facilities will go a long way toward meeting the requirements of the retail and business sector in terms of banking facilities. It will also help facilitate access by the poorest to financial services, thus helping to reduce the high proportion of the un-banked population.

All of this will invariably spur development and integration of national financial systems and intra-regional trade. This will be a welcome development, because a large proportion of intra-regional trade is carried out by informal operators and small and medium enterprises that do not have access to the banking system. Moreover, economic integration and increased intra-regional trade are the best entry point into global markets for all countries.
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Mead Surveys World Challenges and Predicts Trouble?

Often overlooked on this blog and others is foreign policy. Those who follow the War on Terror in Iraq and Afghanistan usually only do so as a reflection on US domestic policy. Events in North Korea or Georgia serve only to give citizens of the United States a chance to test responses by political actors. Few really truly appreciate that importance of foreign policy, but it was foreign affairs that dragged our nation into the War on Terror, the Cold War, Vietnam, Korea, WWII, WWI, etc. It was foreign policy that led to crisis in the Balkans, Rwanda, Somalia, etc. It was foreign policy that opened up markets to our products.

Walter Russell Mead never losses sight of foreign policy and its importance and today put together an excellent article that surveys the major challenges facing the world. Here are some highlights from his article Things Fall Apart, via The American Interest:

...There are times when the ideas of the world’s rulers and the institutions through which they govern are adequate to the needs of the era, and there are times–like the present–when they are not. It is not just the Obama administration that seems mentally and even culturally unprepared to understand much less to guide the events now sweeping through the world. In Brussels, Beijing, Moscow, Tokyo and Delhi — to say nothing of Washington – leaders seem equally clueless, equally committed to outmoded, inaccurate approaches to the issues of our time...

Europe

...The European Union is perhaps the most feckless of the world’s power centers. Its currency is built on a foundation of hopeful assumptions that haven’t panned out: for example that countries as disparate in culture and situation as Greece, Germany, Finland, Ireland and Italy can all live happily under a common currency. There has been no shortage of warning signs for the last decade: there was no secret about the housing bubbles in Ireland and Spain. The falsity of Greek statistics was well known, as were the imprudent habits of its governments and the dysfunctional nature of its economic culture....

...Meanwhile, Europe continues its relentless failure to manage urgent challenges at home and abroad. The Europeans are unwilling (and in some cases, unable) to make the investments that would keep NATO strong; the continuing refusal to take Turkey’s application for EU membership seriously further and decisively marginalizes Europe in the Middle East. Wishful thinking cannot substitute for policy when it comes to the question of immigration, and Europe’s deepening demographic crisis ensures not only a future of population decline but of economic decline and welfare state bankruptcy as well...

China

...Europe is not the only place where leaders don’t measure up to the problems. Although China is not as democratically governed as Europe, on the whole the technocrats of Beijing have handled the last twenty years better than the bureaucrats of the EU. Nevertheless Beijing is confronting a confluence of economic, environmental and social challenges that pose problems which even China’s leadership is unlikely to overcome. Arguments about China’s currency undervaluation, while real, miss the main point: Whether China revalues the renminbi or not, its model of rapid growth based on manufactured exports is reaching fundamental limits... Rising raw material prices combined with consumer fatigue in the malls is squeezing the profitability of Chinese industry just as workers are demanding higher wages. Meanwhile, food price inflation in China is triggering mass anxiety and the financial system appears vulnerable to the kind of bubbles that have wreaked such havoc in the West....

China’s problems go beyond economics. Chinese public opinion, smarting from what it sees as two centuries of humiliation, and now elated by (overblown) press reports of China’s rise, wants its government to follow a more assertive and even aggressive foreign policy. Disputes with Japan, Korea and Vietnam over offshore islands stir deep currents of emotion, and public opinion judges the Chinese government by its ability to prevail in these disputes.

...Looming environmental disasters threaten China’s future, with issues of water, air quality and the usual environmental devastation that accompanies communist governance on a massive scale already taking a toll. The consequences of the one-child policy threaten a demographic disaster as an aging Chinese population will place a growing burden on a society not yet affluent enough to support it...

Russia

Emerging from the sordid shadows of the Soviet Union, Russia faced four great challenges. It needed to come to terms with the horrors and failures of the past, recognizing the enormous evil that Russia both suffered and inflicted during the Soviet period... It has failed, and Russian life and culture remain poisoned by the residue of unrepented horrors and uncomprehended crimes.

...Second, Russia needed to build a modern and competent state that in turn could provide the framework for a new economy and a new society... but with every passing year the critical failure of the Putin presidency to build the stable institutions and solidify the rule of law that a genuinely strong Russian state would require becomes more clear — and more costly....

...The third task, of building the kind of capitalist economy that could provide its citizens with dignity and affluence, has also been left undone. There is no one who thinks that the rule of law is secure in Russia, or that investors (foreign or domestic) have any real security for their investments....

...The fourth task, of finding a suitable world role for a new Russia, has also been decisively botched. Russia has no real friends anywhere in the world; there are those it can bully and those (a much greater number) that it can’t...
Mead also touches on Japan ("a pale shadow of its former self"), India (scandals, poverty, political chaos), Israel, Turkey, etc. His conclusion is one that I also echo:
I hope and pray that the generations of today will not know the sick despair of September 1939; if we are to avoid that kind of fate under even uglier circumstances, we need to start demanding more of our leaders — and of ourselves.
For those interested, check out some books by Walter Russell Mead such as Special Providence: American Foreign Policy and How It Changed the World, God and Gold: Britain, America, and the Making of the Modern World (Vintage), or Walter Russell Mead.

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It's The End of the World, Don't You Know It

Simon Johnson from MIT’s Sloan School of Management and Peter Boone from the London School of Economics predict that the world is close to inflating its final economic bubble. After this bubble bursts, the world will plunge into a long and lasting depression that we haven't seen in many centuries. The end is near, they claim, because interest rates are near zero all around the world and cutting interest rates was our best weapon to fend off collapse.

According to them, the US financial system has tripled in size over the last three decades, and each time it has gotten into trouble, the Federal Reserve would jump in and slash interest rates down to revive it. The problem is that the crises appear to be getting worse and worse, their impact is increasingly global, and interest rates around the world has been slashed already to zero. The economy is not reviving, the debt is piling up, and many countries around the world are on final trajectories to economic collapse.

According to these economists, what brought us to this failure is that the state has corrupted the free market system. Banks and capitalist institutions have been protected from risk-taking and failure by the government through subsidies and bailouts, and the government regulators who were entrusted to protect the people from these risks and failures have not done so. This has led to these banking and financial institutions to make an utter mess of things, the government to bail them out, this encourages riskier behavior and rewards failure, interest rates are cut to revive things, debt is taken on, the the cycle restarts again, each time getting worse and worse.

The only hope is for governments to begin to live within their means (no more debt), for governments to quit playing games with the market, for the regulators to do a better job, and for some bankers to be punished with failure. But, this isn't likely to happen.

Last election the second biggest contributor to the Democratic Party was Wall street, and they know that they own Obama and the Democrats and that they won't let them fail. They own the regulators and won't ever face real regulation or opening up. The other big owner of the Democratic party is the labor unions, in particular the labor union for the government workers, and they won't let government live within its means or quit playing games with the market.

So, if this analysis is correct, there is a major bubble going to burst soon, and it'll be a big one. Our only hope is that Republicans, real Republicans, conservative and libertarian Republicans, win control of every single government institution and jam through brutal austerity measures. That kind of change may indeed give us some hope for the future.

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Pirate Bankers, Shadow Economies

Khadija Sharife writes in FPIF:

In Africa, political power is often used as a ‘get out of jail free’ card, immunising the venal political elite through various mechanisms. Transparency International, the global corruption watchdog renowned for its annual Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI), argues that corruption is especially rampant in Africa. TI defines corruption as the ‘abuse of entrusted power for private gain’, a notion limited to the governing bodies in developing countries.
But this is only half the story. A respectable financial army plays an invaluable role in a global shadow economy. A coterie of bankers, accountants, and lawyers – based in ‘transparent’ London, New York, and Singapore – serve as the ‘postcard-island’ tax havens, and they're backed by multilateral financial institutions. Corrupt government leaders get away with graft much more easily and more frequently because of these international financial enablers
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Pirate Bankers, Shadow Economies

Khadija Sharife writes in FPIF:

In Africa, political power is often used as a ‘get out of jail free’ card, immunising the venal political elite through various mechanisms. Transparency International, the global corruption watchdog renowned for its annual Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI), argues that corruption is especially rampant in Africa. TI defines corruption as the ‘abuse of entrusted power for private gain’, a notion limited to the governing bodies in developing countries.
But this is only half the story. A respectable financial army plays an invaluable role in a global shadow economy. A coterie of bankers, accountants, and lawyers – based in ‘transparent’ London, New York, and Singapore – serve as the ‘postcard-island’ tax havens, and they're backed by multilateral financial institutions. Corrupt government leaders get away with graft much more easily and more frequently because of these international financial enablers
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Kenneth Feinberg, Head of the Deutsche Arbeitsfront and Pay Czar

June 11, 2009, Democratic President Barack Obama installed Washington DC lobbyist and Democratic donor Kenneth Feinberg as compensation czar. Although it is unclear from where he gains the legal authority to do so, from his government offices in the Treasury building, Mr. Feinberg will set the salaries and bonuses of 175 top executives at seven of the nation’s largest companies. He is planning on working day and night to savagely use the power of the US government to personally attack the livelihoods of the top employees in these critical firms, apparently in the name of some nebulous concept of fairness.

Mr. Feinberg has decided, again on questionably legal and constitutional authority, that he personally gets to now decide the pay for the top 25 executives at the American International Group, Citibank, Chrysler, Chrysler Credit, General Motors, GMAC and Bank of America. In addition, he has decided that for 80 other financial institutions that have received federal assistance, he personally will develop the overall compensation structure, but right now has decided that he and his minions don't have time to decide the exact level of pay for the employees in these companies.

As Sweetness and Light puts it, this is yet another blow to whatever is left of freedom in this country. Under the Obama administration, the list of czars is getting quite long, as he has decided that best way to rule our nation is to appoint roving officials with no authority yet little constraints on power.

A quick search of Open Secrets turns revealed that Mr. Feinberg is anything but unbiased- over the years he has donated massive amounts of money to mostly Democratic candidates (with an occasional moderate or independent sprinkled in). Last election cycle her particularly liked Obama- he donated $7200 to him, although he hedged his bets and also donated $8700 to Hillary Clinton and $6900 to John Kerry. He also gave significant large amounts of money to individual Democratic Senators and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

Feinberg is a long-time Democratic operative and actually spent 5 years as Democratic Senator Kennedy's chief of staff. This long partisan association indubitably qualifies him for service in Obama's house of thugs and cronies.

Few have even dreamed up the idea federal officials who would have the power to tell private companies that they are paying their own employees too much money. Probably the closest modern day comparison to Kenneth Feinberg in terms of job description is Robert Ley, who was head of the Deutsche Arbeitsfront (DAF). In this capacity, his job was to set the wages and salaries of the employees in the top firms in Germany. It tried to level the playing field for workers and preferred companies that the state controlled. He also was a longtime political operative who worked for the administration to control the salaries of executives for the good of the state. Robert Ley, who was a Nazi, died in 1945 while awaiting trial for war crimes.

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A Parasite-Switzerland

Lord Aikins Adusei in Wikileaks:

However, of all the victims of Swiss banking secrecy laws and her shady banking practices, developing countries and Africa in particular seem to have suffered the most. The global infrastructure of international financial secrecy with headquarters in Switzerland has helped bleed trillions of dollars in illicitly generated money out of Africa and the rest of the developing world. The activities of Swiss banking institutions and real estate companies have plunged third world nations into debts, poverty, misery, malnutrition, diseases, economic meltdown, infrastructure decay and political instabilities through the help they give to corrupt politicians, civil servants, the business elite and corrupt multinational corporations who collude and connive with the corrupt entities to loot and hide the proceeds of their ill-gotton gains.
More here.

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Abandoment or a time to Adapt?

From Davos, Trevor Manuel stated that Africa is "at risk of decoupling, derailment and abandonment”...he is particularly worried by the threat of trade and financial protectionism in the developed world. He is concerned that banks and financial institutions in the US and Europe will increasingly be under pressure to direct loans towards their domestic markets...[continue reading]"-Gideon Rachman at the FT
Is it me or the self-pitying language "abandonment" et al. Doesn't this perpetuate a dangerously dependent non-constructive state of mind and policy?

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Smart Youth Investments

Smart Youth Investments goals include:
-To enhance financial management skills among the Kenyan youth.
-To teach the Kenyan youth the practicality of stock trading concepts. This will include the risks and gains involved while trading at the Nairobi Stock Exchange.
-To popularize stock trading at the Nairobi Stock Exchange with the Kenyan youth.
-To encourage the culture of thrift or saving. In the Kenyan economy, there exists several licensed institutions where savers can invest their money and earn a return. These act as an incentive to have individuals spend less and save more.

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SMEs Are What's Next

Derek Newberry of Next Billion reports:

The Miami Herald interviewed Root Capital founder Willy Foote this week about the basics of his enterprise development organization. Root Capital identifies and supports SMEs in countries where the private sector is dominated by micro-enterprises and large corporations. This structure represents a dearth of businesses in the investment range of roughly $100,000 - $3 million - the infamous "missing middle"Willy, a key player in this space, believes that providing success stories of SME finance can help set off a rising tide of investment in this sector - very similar to the New Ventures approach. In his words: "...we can really do what microfinance did. That is, show local financial institutions that this is an asset class they can penetrate profitably."

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Nigerian Investment Options

Marion Mühlberger of Deutsch Bank Research wrote(pdf) in June 2007 about the lack of USD-denominated investment opportunities within Nigeria:

The redemption of the Brady bond by Nigeria last November has considerably reduced USD-denominated investment opportunities. As investment options in USD and EUR are scarce, institutional investors go for synthetic bonds, so-called credit linked notes. Another option is corporate bonds, e.g. USD-denominated bonds issued by large Nigerian financial institutions. However, these entail additional company-specific risks and frequently require a very high minimum investment. The stock market also offers very few opportunities for private investors as emerging markets share certificates in the past did not cover Nigeria at all due to a lack of liquidity in the market; at present, this is the case to only a small degree. But the Nigerian capital markets are making quick progress so over the next few years we will see improving investment opportunities in the country

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The Need for Managerial Expertise

Apoorva Shah asks?

The question is not whether there should be more innovators and entrepreneurs in Africa, but how? What concrete steps must be taken in order to develop the business sector?
He believes that part of the answer lies in building managerial expertise:
The importance of governance, financial institutions, and the overall "enabling environment" has already been proven by the widely referenced World Bank Doing Business Reports. By measuring the difficulty of starting and sustaining business, the report allows for governments to know where to direct and manage reforms. However, an assessment of business know-how and expertise is less frequently discussed, and some over-enthused optimists, especially those on the microfinance bandwagon, insinuate that skills like balancing a checkbook or managing organizational structure are inherent in all entrepreneurs, even budding ones in Africa and South Asia.
Yet studies show that many times it is not the availability of funding or even government reforms that hold back business development, but simply business expertise. Management skills are especially important when entrepreneurs look to scale their businesses and employ more workers
via more business schools
The Association of African Business Schools (AABS), organized by the International Finance Corporation's Global Business School Network, is a quiet but crucial voice in a sector where passions thrive on shirtsleeves and megaphones. The AABS member schools collaborate to improve the standards and increase accreditation of business schools in Africa. Right now, only one school, the University of Cape Town in South Africa, ranks within the Top 100 Business Schools on the 2007 Financial Times Global MBA Index.
But more entrepreneurial Africans in the middle and lower-middle classes should also have the opportunity to attend decent business schools close to home, preventing brain drain and catalyzing larger-scale local business development. As the AABS addresses the quality of business schools, private donors can look to increase the quantity of these schools

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University-Industry Links

Glenda Kruss writes about University-Industry linkages and the South African experience:

Establishing effective cross-sector networks rather than limited contracts and consultancies can reconcile these two positions. Africa needs partnerships that both harness the innovation potential of university research and meet industrial needs for development. South Africa's best examples can lead the way...To create such partnerships, institutions first need to understand the competitive dynamics of their target industry, and what individual firms in their region could use. And they need to be realistic to avoid ambitious science parks or design centres failing.
Universities must build their general research capacity, and specific expertise in niche areas (most of South Africa's best networks are in just a few well-established universities that have well-organised research systems). Then, they need to develop research policies and mechanisms to specifically support partnerships. They must decide which partnerships will best promote their academic mission and serve their financial imperatives, as well as contributing to national development goals.

via SciDev

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MFIs and the Remittances Business

A recent publication of the Foundation for Development Cooperation states:

Migrant workers and their families need financial products which make it easier to send, receive and manage international money transfers, and to save and invest their income. Microfinance is well-suited for remittance-linked financial services, particularly among poor and geographically isolated populations. Because they are poor, many remittance recipients fall outside typical bank client profiles, but are well within the market segment targeted by microfinance agencies. By extending remittance-linked services to the ‘unbanked’, microfinance has the potential to promote broad-based development while vastly expanding the volume of remittance flows mediated through financial institutions.
via NextBillion

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