Employment-Population Ratio Drops to 58.5%

Mr. Nolan Finley of the Detroit News wrote:

But while the economy tops every list of public concerns, job creation is not the hot topic in Washington. In fact, Democratic leaders, obsessed with reworking America, have proved more than willing to sacrifice precious jobs during the worst economic climate in a half-century.

Sen. Barbara Boxer, D-Calif., rammed an energy-rationing bill through her Senate environment and Public Works Committee last week without a single Republican member in the room. The bill would greatly limit America's ability to produce the energy it needs to fuel an economic rebound. In other words, it's a job killer.

Democrats are revealing that putting the country back to work is a lesser priority than passing their social agenda. If that weren't true, they wouldn't even consider any measure that would raise taxes on job creators. Higher taxes, particularly on business, always result in fewer jobs. Both the health care and climate change bills will trigger huge tax hikes for every taxpayer.

When people talk about jobs and employment, usually the number that is used is the unemployment figure. But that figure does not give you a real picture of how many people in this country do not have a productive job. Unemployment does not give you a picture of how many people out there are earning a paycheck providing goods and services. A better picture emerges when you consider the employment-population ratio. This statistic measures how many people 16 and older have a job. And when you look at that number, it is very shocking what is going on in our nation.

Currently, the number is 58.5%, and dropping fast. Only 58.5% of the people in our nation have a job producing goods and services, and it is dropping fast.

Here is the graph for you to look at, as generated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, showing the employment-population ratio from 1988 to 2009 (seasonally adjusted). If you follow the link, you can access the data in more detail, including the month-by-month numbers that I break down below. Here is the graph:



Liberal Paul Krugman once analyzed these numbers too, and came away with the conclusion that under Bush the economy boomed less than under Clinton. That's fair enough and a good analysis. By a similar measure, a conclusion that could easily be drawn when looking at the numbers today is that since the nomination and election of Barack Obama, the economy has crashed at a rate seldom seen in the history of our nation.

Using the employment-population ratio, you can see a decrease in the percentage of people employed in this nation from the nomination of Obama in June to his election win in November of 1%- 62.4% to 61.4%. From Obama's election win in November to his taking office in January another 0.9% (61.4-60.5). From Obama becoming our President in January to today (October) we see another decrease in the percentage of people employed in our nation of 2% (60.5-58.5).

One could blame it on Bush- the last 1.9% drop did occur during his administration. Over the first 89 months of Bush's Presidency, the percentage of people employed in our nation dropped by 1.9%. Over his last 9 months, it dropped by another 1.9%. But the 2% drop that has occurred since he has been gone from office is much harder to pin on him, and it is getting worse, not better, since Obama's election.

Let's take a quick look at what electing a Democratic Congress has done to the numbers. From 1994 to 2000, under a Republican Congress and a Democrat President, the percentage went up 2.2% (from 62.2 to 64.4). Under Republican control of Congress and a Republican President, the percentage of those employed as a percentage of all workers in our nation went down 1.8 % (64.6 in Jan of 2000 to 62.8 in Dec of 2005). Under Democratic control of Congress and a Republican President, the percentage went down 1.8% (62.8 to 61). Under Democratic Congress and Democrat President, the percentage went down 1.5% so far (61 to 58.5).

On the whole, Republican Congress resulted in an increase in 0.4%, Republican President a decrease of 3.6%, Democrat Congress decrease of 3.3%, and Democrat President an increase of 0.7%. These numbers can be updated in the future since we have a Democratic Congress and President currently.

I would suggest that as a voter you begin to pay more attention to who is running Congress and vote for Republicans for Congress, since when Republicans are in charge they have a better record of creating jobs and helping more people be gainfully employed. As far as the Presidency goes, so far it looks like having a Democrat as President is better than a Republican, but as more data emerges on the Obama Presidency over the next 3 years, this may change, especially if current trends hold steady.

UPDATE: Updating my numbers from October of 2009 on November of 2010 shows that the employment-population ratio dropped another 0.2%. This damages the Democrats, since there was a Democratic President and Democratic Congress in charge during this time period, and they are also accountable for any numbers through January as well. After that, with a split Congress until 2012, any adjustments will only affect Obama.