The New York Times FiveThirtyEight blog has put together a graphical look at the GOP contenders for President in 2012 that is interesting to look at. This two-axis model shows where candidates stand relative to one another with relation to being part of the establishment or out of it and how conservative or moderate they are. In addition, it depicts a circle around the candidates name, the bigger the circle the higher probability that candidates chances are for winning the nomination. Here is the graphic:
The NYT's analysis of the 2012 field is here, and does make some good points. To me, the most important person in the 2012 GOP nomination race is Sarah Palin. It is my belief that if she runs, she may well win the nomination (which would lead to an Obama reelection) because the remaining votes for everyone else would be split between the remaining candidates. I really hope she doesn't run (I really like her but I want the GOP to win the Presidency and end the childness of the Obama administration), and I don't think she is going to yet, and if she doesn't, I think that Mitt Romney will win the nomination. To me, the larger question is whether or not the Tea Party people are grownups or not- they may well be childish and sit home rather than vote for Romney because of Romneycare, and that would result in an Obama win.
The chart provided by the NYT does nothing to really move me from my belief that Romney will be our next President. What do you think?
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