What next for Ivory Coast?

The Republican forces loyal to Alassane Ouattara, the internationally recognised winner of Ivory Coast's election last November, are, as I write, in the final stages of a violent showdown in the capital, Abidjan, to oust the recalcitrant losing president, Laurent Gbagbo. This is proving to be a bloody last stand as the former history professor, Gbagbo, seems to have ignored the lessons of the past. In 1990 the Liberian autocrat Samuel Doe was captured by rebels in Monrovia and tortured to death; a year later the Somali strongman Siad Barre fled into exile as a rebellion approached Mogadishu; the Zairean despot Mobutu Sese Seko also fled his capital in 1996 as rebels approached.