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Menampilkan postingan yang diurutkan menurut relevansi untuk kueri Emerging market. Urutkan menurut tanggal Tampilkan semua postingan
Menampilkan postingan yang diurutkan menurut relevansi untuk kueri Emerging market. Urutkan menurut tanggal Tampilkan semua postingan

Transitioning to Emerging Market Status?

From the IMF's Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa,2008(PDF):

The term “emerging market” was coined in 1980 to refer to countries that had stock markets and were in transition toward having the features of the mature stock markets in industrial countries.This box suggests that some African countries fit within the emerging market group and supports this view by benchmarking these African economies of 2007 against the ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore,and Thailand) of 1980, when the term “emerging market” entered the lexicon.
Selected African countries compare favorably with the ASEAN countries of 1980. The ASEAN countries were already experiencing strong economic growth. Yet, in many other respects, the ASEAN countries looked quite different from what we see today. Inflation rates were still high in some cases, the depth of their financial sectors was limited, foreign direct investment had yet to accelerate, and their financial
resources, reflected in international reserves, were adequate but not high. Many African countries have perhaps reached broader macroeconomic stability than the 1980 ASEAN benchmark. Growth is strong, inflation moderate, and international reserves relatively high. Like ASEAN, financial depth remains limited.Foreign direct investment is quite high, although this is in large part a reflection of the larger share of naturalresources such as oil in the case of African countries.2 Debt-to-GDP ratios are low.

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Emerging Markets: Nigeria?

Writing in the FT Chuka Mordi of Nex Rubica stated:

Outside South Africa, Sub-Saharan African capital markets represent the last frontier for the unhindered flow of global capital. The problem has always been the absence of the combination of scale and local expertise required to attract global fund managers...There is currently not enough depth in the Nigerian market - its market capitalisation is $31bn, total issue of government bonds about $4bn - to support such a large inflow of cash without overly inflating the market. But the Nex-Rubica forecast is for this size to double between now and the final quarter of 2007, surpassing Egypt by 2008...In the last year, the outperforming stocks on the Nex-Rubica Africa Top 40 Index, have been Nigerian financials. One key attraction is that the risk/return profile in the Nigerian market is generally uncorrelated to western markets. Starting from a relatively low base, Nigeria alone has the momentum in terms of its population, resources and growth potential to catapult it to the first rank of emerging market economies.

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Western Business School Curricula's are Inappropriate for Africa

In How we made it ,Walter Baets on the mis-match between Western Business School training and African economies:
Walter Baets
...most of the classical business schools’ models are designed for stable economies where everything is foreseeable. Executives operating in complex emerging markets with high uncertainty and inequality, however, need unique qualities to succeed.“Emerging market thinking goes beyond the geographical emerging markets. For me it is all about thinking how are you as a leader able to take responsibility in an economy that is changing every day. That is something you would rather learn in an emerging market business school, than in a stable (western) business school,”...[continue reading]
Original FT article here

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A capital market for SME's:NSE's 3rdTier Market

Stock Market Nigeria reports on the guidelines for Nigeria Stock Exchange's 3rd Tier market for SME's:

The primary purpose for the setting up of the sub-sector is to encourage them to become quoted, have access to more capital and hence boost production activities in the country and beyond. Before now, the exchange consists only of the first-tier securities and the emerging market otherwise known as the second-tier securities market.

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The GEMLOC Program

"...The Global Bond Fund For Emerging Market Local Currencies Program -- is designed to move more institutional investment into local currency bond markets in developing countries. Making local currency bond markets deeper and stronger can lower the cost of borrowing, and a liquid corporate debt market can help firms better manage risk. Institutional investors, both domestic and international, could benefit from investing in a diversified portfolio of local emerging market bonds as they offer diversification with low correlations and potential returns from an improving credit environment and currency appreciation..."

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Why isn't Africa attracting Portfolio investment?

PSD Blog reports on the reasons for tepid portfolio investment interest in Africa:

Despite their recently good performance, Sub-Saharan African stock exchanges lose out because of their small size and very low liquidity. As he put it, "the New York Stock Exchange trades more before tea than all of Africa trades in a year." The glaring exception is the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE), which is as large and popular as any emerging market stock exchange.
The bottom line - a stock exchange must have $50 billion in market capitalization and $10 billion in value traded to attract any interest from global emerging market funds. Of the 15 African exchanges, only South Africa hits either metric.

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Frontier Markets contd.

The Economist writes about emerging markets being the flavor to the moment,are they?:

Back in 2002, emerging-market bonds offered a yield a full ten percentage points higher than American Treasury bonds. This year, although spreads have widened from the historic lows seen in May, they have settled at a modest two percentage points or so.
The performance of the equity markets has also been impressive. The MSCI emerging markets index has risen by nearly 40% so far this year, a remarkable achievement given the credit crunch and geopolitical worries. Although China's stockmarket has more than doubled, this is not all about the People's Republic; the Polish, Indian, Brazilian and Pakistani markets are all up by more than 40%.
Indeed, investor focus is now shifting towards what Michael Hartnett of Merrill Lynch dubs “the emerging emerging markets”, such as Botswana and Kazakhstan. MSCI is in the process of launching a benchmark for such exotica called the “frontier market” index.

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Emerging Emerging Market

The WSJ writes:

The global credit crunch has shaken the kaleidoscope of the world economy. As sub-prime lending problems ricochet around the world, capital is seeking new places to grow. And it is looking farther afield than ever before -- not just to the well-established emerging economies of China or India, but to "emerging emerging" markets in Africa...Their success has been driven by getting the fundamentals right. Nigeria has benefited from banking and pension reform, a crackdown on corruption, debt relief based on sound fiscal policy and the high oil price. Perhaps more remarkably, Ghana has achieved its success without oil windfalls. A strong technocratic team in the top ministries has pushed through a homegrown reform program which has rationalized the electricity sector, led the development of a domestic debt market, and freed up capital controls. There is nothing to stop the rest of Africa following this lead. And the signs are encouraging: The IMF expects sub-Saharan Africa to grow 6.1% in 2007 and 6.8% in 2008.

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"Emerging Emerging Markets"

Oz ponders "Emerging Emerging Markets":

For the past 10 years the Nigerian economy has swung back and forth between emerging market, frontier market and even underdeveloped economy, as perceived by institutional investors. Personally I find it difficult to to tell the difference sometime.I am of the opinion that Wall Street is acutely tunnel visioned when it comes to recognizing the impressive changes that the African continent has undergone in the last ten years. This is why I find it difficult not to be cynical sometimes when ‘premier’ analysts sometime tout the equity markets in Nigeria as the next big thing...[continue reading]

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A Flowering of Business Innovation in the Developing World

In the Economist:

...a combination of challenges and opportunities is producing a fizzing cocktail of creativity. Because so many consumers are poor, companies have to go for volume. But because piracy is so commonplace, they also have to keep upgrading their products. Again the similarities with Japan in the 1980s are striking. Toyota and Honda took to “just-in-time” inventories and quality management because land and raw materials were expensive. In the same way emerging-market companies are turning problems into advantages....the emerging markets are developing their own distinctive management ideas, and Western companies will increasingly find themselves learning from their rivals. People who used to think of the emerging world as a source of cheap labour must now recognise that it can be a source of disruptive innovation as well.
More here
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A note of caution on African Markets

Adam Wolfe writes:

In the end, global financial markets cannot save Africa alone. It will need to save itself. The World Bank and donor countries can help to finance the necessary infrastructure investments Africa needs to get on its feet, but African government’s will have to stop diverting the revenues from oil and other commodities to their cronies and invest back in their own nations. China has not been helpful in this regard -- by neglecting to put conditions on the money it loans, Beijing only enables corrupt officials to steal from Africa’s future.
Still, the recent interest from Western financial firms has not come out of nowhere. The investment climate is improving in significant ways across most of the continent. But the road from “frontier market” to “emerging market” will be an arduous journey for Africa’s governments. Despite the current opportunities, many may still turn back before reaching their destination.

via Ipienso

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The Globality Game

Harold L. Sirkin in Businessweek writes about emerging market multinationals:

We continue to underestimate that companies from China, India, and other developing markets have the capability to challenge us, giving these companies time to sharpen their skills, enhance their marketing capabilities, become serious innovators, gobble up Western knowhow and companies, and set their sights on global markets, including the lucrative U.S. market...[continue reading]
How long before African companies join the fray?

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Globalization's Offspring

The Economist reports on the acquisitive appetites of Emerging market multinationals :

While globalization has opened new markets to rich-world companies, it has also given birth to a pack of fast-moving, sharp-toothed new multinationals that is emerging from the poor world.Indian and Chinese firms are now starting to give their rich-world rivals a run for their money. So far this year, Indian firms, led by Hindalco and Tata Steel, have bought some 34 foreign companies for a combined $10.7 billion.
Indian IT-services companies such as Infosys, Tata Consultancy Services and Wipro are putting the fear of God into the old guard, including Accenture and even mighty IBM (see article). Big Blue sold its personal-computer business to a Chinese multinational, Lenovo, which is now starting to get its act together. PetroChina has become a force in Africa, including, controversially, Sudan. Brazilian and Russian multinationals are also starting to make their mark. The Russians have outdone the Indians this year, splashing $11.4 billion abroad, and are now in the running to buy Alitalia, Italy's state airline

The question to be asked is "When will African Multinationals rise to the occasion?"

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Quick Hits

Bernard Hours writes about the NGOs and the victim industry.
Webometrics releases a continent-wide rankings for universities. Nigeria's ramshackle tertiary sector lives up to its expectations-Terrible. via Mootbox
African Loft highlights an IMF survey, that showcases the emerging market status of a number of African countries.
Mark Mobius discusses emerging opportunities in frontier markets.-FT
Mimicking the private sector or not? A question for Development Agencies-via Mootbox
Untying red tape-Doing Business 2008 a video report.

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Africa’s Risks

The FT writes about the impact of Kenya's political turmoil on investor perceptions:

The explosion of violence that has met Mwai Kibaki’s disputed election in what was considered one of Africa’s most stable countries threatens to undermine not only Kenya’s reputation but also the continent’s.Charlemagne Capital, an emerging market specialist, said Kenya’s place “at the centre of the renaissance in eastern Africa seemed assured”. The worst-case scenarios for the country now threatened to “wipe it off the map from the point of view of international investors”.

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Defining the "Missing Middle"

J. Skyler Fernandes and Lena Sene write in Huffington Post:

According to the 2009 Milken Institute report "Stimulating Investment in Emerging-Market SMEs," they account for 57 percent of employment and over 50 percent of GDP in developed countries. But in the developing countries, they contribute only 18 percent of employment and 16 percent of GDP. The report concludes that "if barriers to their growth were removed, SMEs would contribute more to economic development by providing jobs and income, expanding the middle class, broadening the tax base and ultimately decreasing poverty levels."...[continue reading]

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Unlock Africa's migrant fortune

World map showing GDP real growth rates for 20...Image via Wikipedia
Sanou Mbaye on reasons for renewed growth in the continent:
Many factors have contributed to this upturn. Emerging-market demand has pushed up commodity prices. Urbanisation has given rise to a dynamic informal sector. Improved governance, higher food production, increased inter-regional trade, debt cancellation, better use of official development assistance (ODA), and thriving telecommunications and housing markets have helped as well.
But transfers from the African diaspora stand out as the most significant contributing factor. A study commissioned by the Rome-based International Fund for Agricultural Development indicates that more than 30 million individuals living outside their countries of origin contribute more than $40bn annually in remittances to their families and communities back home. For sub-Saharan African countries, remittances increased from $3.1bn in 1995 to $18.5bn in 2007, according to the World Bank, representing between 9% and 24% of GDP and 80-750% of ODA...[continue reading]
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Gulf invests in Sub-Sahara

The Ft reports:

Gulf-based private and public equity fund managers have this year shifted some of their vast wealth from Asia and the Middle East/North Africa region to the world’s poorest region: sub-Saharan Africa. These portfolio flows to a half-dozen countries have been accompanied by direct investment in property and other sectors...The Gulf push into the sub-Sahara reinforces pioneer efforts, notably by Saudi Arabia’s Prince Alwaleed bin Talal whose Kingdom Holdings created a $125m joint venture in 2004 with New York-based Zephyr Investment for African private equity. Its best-known success was a $20m stake in the pan-regional mobile provider Celtel, which was later acquired at a hefty premium by Kuwait owners. The prince has joined HSBC in a separate dedicated vehicle.
As petrodollars head towards these locations, western wealth advisers who have shunned them may re-examine their assumptions and consider participation a viable emerging market option.

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African bull markets

PSD Blog reports on the WSJ's coverage of Africa's Bull markets:

The continent's so-called frontier markets, such as Nigeria, Kenya, Ghana, Mauritius and Botswana, are up an average of 26% so far this year in dollar terms, according to Liquid Africa. By comparison, the MSCI Emerging Market Index, which includes just three African countries -- South Africa, Egypt and Morocco -- has risen 9.5% during the same period.

If you haven't heard this story, it's because the numbers are still small. The London Stock Exchange is five times as big as all African stock markets combined. And South Africa's exchange is 2/3 of the African total.

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Increasing options for Business Finance

J Mawuli Ababio of the AVCA discusses the widening range of financing tools available to businesses in an AfricaNews interview:

‘There has always been a recognition of the lack of long term funding in Africa. There is no question about that. A lot of the African private businesses have traditionally been run by short term loans from banks. Today Venture Capital and Private Equity is assuming increasing prominence as a financing tool in emerging market economies, (including those in Africa), to finance private and public sector requirements on the continent.

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