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A Stolen Election

The Guardian writes about the recent Kenyan elections:

This election promised so much, not only to Kenya but to Africa as a whole. It would have been the first time that a Kenyan president would have lost through the ballot box, and the first time an incumbent would have been voted out of office. It would have been, in the best sense of the word, a revolution. Many of the old guard who had dominated politics since independence were swept out of office by a younger generation of politicians who owed their popularity to votes rather than tribal loyality or patronage. Instead. Kenya appeared last night to be stepping back several decades. Deprived of power in the way that his late father - the Luo nationalist hero Oginga Odinga - was, Raila Odinga darkly predicted a stormy future for a nation that could once again split on tribal lines.

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Alt-i: Talking Drums & Speech recognition

Túndé Adégbölá writes in Ictupdate:

Because research efforts in the field of speech recognition began with English, a non-tone language, most attention is given to the recognition of consonants and vowels. At Alt-i, however, we found that if tones are accurately recognized they can suggest the vowels that bear them and the consonants that they accompany. Interestingly, tones are a lot easier to recognize than vowels and consonants.Such features are common among many African tone languages. It is likely that tools and techniques can be developed and shared for other languages, including Asian tone languages too. We are aware of the pressing needs of many other African languages and we are approaching the development of this product in such a way that will make it relatively easy to adapt to other African tone languages in the near future.

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Ghana, West African Trendsetter

Deutsche Bank Research reports:

On September 27 this year the eyes of the international capital markets were drawn to Ghana: on that day Ghana became the first sub-Saharan country after the Republic of South Africa to issue a dollar-denominated, ten-year government bond and in so doing experienced huge demand. This important test of the international appetite for African bonds thus proved extremely positive and cleared the way for future bond issues by other promising candidates like Gabon, Kenya and Zambia...The local-currency bond market is only just starting to emerge. Nurturing its growth is, however, very high on the list of government priorities, which is also shown by the increasing liberalisation of access for foreign investors. Since December of last year foreign investors have been able to invest in capital market instruments with a maturity of at least three years. An alternative option is investing in bonds issued by the African Development Bank which are denominated in Ghanaian cedis.

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DELTA - Oil's Dirty Business

Directed by Yorgos Avgeropoulos, "DELTA - Oil's Dirty Business" "...portrays the image of "development", the way giant multinational petroleum companies would define it. Petroleum leaks in the River destroy flora and fauna, poison the food chain and consequently wipe out the 27 million indigenous people of the area - the Ijaws, the Ogoni and the Itsekiris. The inhabitants dare to ask the self-evident, they demand an end to it. As a response they are massively and brutally attacked by special forces of the army and the police, which are armed by the oil companies. The camera meets at the river militia of the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta-MEND- and presents to the world for the first time shattering images of their speed boat patrols and of their heavy weaponry..."

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Nigeria's Tinapa: new Dubai or white elephant?

Estelle Shirbon of Yahoo news reports :

In the minds of its creators, the Tinapa resort in southeastern Nigeria will rival Dubai or London as a shopping and trading paradise for rich and enterprising Nigerians.In reality, about $340 million has been spent since 2005 but 80,000 square meters of pristine retail space lie empty, the silence broken only by the footsteps of a few security guards...
With the rent-seeking venal Nigerian Customs playing their usual role:
"Customs have been preventing us from selling. They say we have to pay duty. That's why no one else has opened. Meanwhile our rent is running but our patience is running thin," said a member of staff, who did not wish to be named.This is ominous. Customs are one of the most corrupt institutions in Nigeria, the finance minister said last month, and have a powerful vested interest against duty free trade.

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Rising foreign interest to spur Capital Markets

Business Daily reported that:

Creating a strong Africa domiciled investment banking industry is an essential factor to ensure capital market rewards stay in Africa. The bond market is seen growing as more countries acquire sovereign credit ratings and float debt instruments.Eighteen countries across the continent have got a sovereign issuer rating from at least one International Credit Ratings Agency.In the equities markets, increasing local private and institutional participation and new issues have improved liquidity significantly, says Mr Ken Ofori-Atta, the executive chairman of Databank Financial Services.

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Will Africa miss all MDGs? Does it really matter?

The PSD Blog reports on a Bill Easterly paper (pdf) that questions those who set the MDG goals in the first place,he concludes that.

It seems undesirable to exaggerate the “Africa as failure” image, which in turn exaggerates the role of “the West as Savior” for Africa (as the MDG campaign has often played out in practice). It is demoralizing to have goals for Africa that only be attained with progress that is nearly without historical precedent from other regions or in Africa itself. Africa has enough problems without international organizations and campaigners downplaying African progress when it happens.
This echo's an earlier critique by Bunker Roy.The question becomes, Do they really matter?

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Privatized Cement Factory Doubles Production

The Africa Monitor reports:

After being privatized to a share company, the National Cement Factory(of Ethiopia) has doubled production and works are underway to open another plant, according to the company's representative.Found inefficient and bankrupt, the 70 year old company was put under the management of the Mugher Cement Factory, before its 80 percent share was finally sold out to the East Africa Group in February 2006, as per the country's privatization policy.The Governmental maintains ownership of the remaining 20 per-cent.

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Under-researched and Under-discovered

Andrew Tanzer writes in Kiplinger:

Stock exchanges in Africa and the Middle East, only recently opened to foreign investors, are under-researched and under-discovered (Alderson says that on average only one analyst covers a stock). That creates stock inefficiencies and fine opportunities for shrewd investors. The correlation with the U.S. stock market is a remarkably low 10% at a time when most international markets have been moving closely in sync with the U.S.

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Mercantalism Reborn

Franklin Cudjoe writes in African Liberty:

Even old Socialist or even Communist States are fast embracing reforms and doing the obvious, instituting property rights and freedom of trade. Some are making the mistake, however, of adopting mercantilism, thinking that using the state’s power to gain access to resources abroad through bribes will command global respect. Africa is one place they are casting their glance.
Africa ought to position itself in time for the next biggest hunt for its resources. The onslaught however is on, and aggressively led by China with many offers. We seem to be buckling under the good old magical hand of foreign aid again.

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Increasing Africa’s Value for its products

Joshua Wanyama writes in the Cheetah Index:

When a continent as rich as Africa sells its natural resources to the rest of the world. I call that a basic economic market. When African economies and companies start keeping these resources at home and produce world quality products, then they have added value and ensured better prices for their commodities...Until Africa increases the value for its natural resources consistently, the continent keeps fueling outside economies while playing second fiddle to world markets.

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Africa must Trade Within

Lazarus Amayo makes a case for increased intra-continental trade:

He said there is need to expand trade links within the African region through product diversification and establishment of joint ventures...African nations need to improve its trade with other nations through cooperation agreements“There is need for African continent that trades with itself and rely on overseas countries to buy our products when our neighboring countries can do the same,”

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Mandela Veil Lifted

Reuben Abati writes in Nigeria Village Square:

Those who have always suspected that South Africa, a much better organized country in spite of its many problems, would soon succumb to the African disease under black leadership and go the way of Zimbabwe, Nigeria etc can now look back on the ANC party elections and express fresh anxieties. The Mandela veil has been lifted.For years, with the symbolism of Mandela's charisma and stature, the ANC looked like a party of good men. But the ANC today, is different. It is no longer a liberation movement that is shaped by high ideals; it is like other political parties in Africa, a party of ambitious men and women who are desperate for power and position and who would do anything, anything at all, to achieve their goals. South Africa is beginning to deal with the consequences of its post-apartheid reality. Black South African politicians are about to destroy the beauty of their nation's landscape. The signs are ominous.

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Tourism Rises : Mali

Africaincorp reports on the surging Malian tourism business:

The tourism story in Mali is experiencing a tremendous growth, from 98,000 visitors in 2006 , the number of unique visitor went to 250,000 unique visitors during the last season.The Malian revenue Authority reports earnings of about 126 million

photo courtesy of Saharan Vibe

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Kenyan Elections, An Example to Others?

The Economist reports:

Whoever wins, what matters next is that the result should be accepted by the loser and Kenyans should be seen to endorse the principle of peaceful competition. Most of Africa has left behind the era of the one-party state, but its people have yet to be fully persuaded that multi-party politics need not be chaotic. South Africa's ruling party seems unhappy to have submitted itself to an internal contest that has humiliated President Mbeki, who himself seems loth to badger neighbouring Zimbabwe's dictatorial Robert Mugabe into holding fair elections. But if a country as complex and poor as Kenya can hold genuine elections without civil strife, then any country in Africa can. This is its chance to set an example.

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The Charade of Development Aid

Dan J Ncayiyana writes in the BMJ:

The needs of the poor are immediate and cry out for direct and urgent intervention now. International aid genuinely earmarked for eradicating poverty must be taken out of the hands of the politicians and bureaucracies of both donor countries and recipient countries. Such funds should be controlled by independent and accountable agencies, which have knowledge of the existing needs and have direct access to those in need. Aid must be contingent upon the accountability of those who administer it, feedback from those who benefit from it, and measurable or otherwise verifiable outcomes.

via AfricaClub

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Africas Stock Bargains Dwindle

Ryan Shen Hoover writing in the the Cheetah Index states:

It’s great to see such confidence in Africa’s capital markets. It will encourage additional companies to go public and ultimately improve African exchangesliquidity. But it makes uncovering a “screaming buy” each month much more difficult. Instead of “40% off everything in the store,” value investing in Africa is now more akin to rummaging through the clearance section.
Still, retail investors can thrive in such an environment. They’re able to pick up deals that the big guys can’t touch. Large institutions find it difficult to invest in opportunities like Fan Milk because of the lack of liquidity, and great companies like SAB&T Ubuntu are too small for them to buy without moving the market. Moreover, most of Africa’s IPOs and secondary offerings tend to favor small-time investors. Like scooping up “Midnight Madness” deals, investing in African stocks isn’t convenient, but it can be rewarding and fun.

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Hottest Investment Destination

Finance Asia reports:

The overall African economy is expected to grow at 6.2% in 2007, compared with 5.5% in 2006. Countries such as Ghana, Botswana, Uganda, Zambia, Mozambique, Namibia and Nigeria are showing gross domestic product growth rates that are three- to four-times faster than those of the developed economies in the Euro zone. The Ghana Stock Exchange is one of the world’s best performing stock markets, while Botswana boasts one of the highest per capita government savings rates in the world

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Building Private Health

The FT reports:

The International Finance Corporation, the private-sector arm of the World Bank, is to co-ordinate a $1bn package of debt and equity funding designed to strengthen health across Africa by supporting the private sector.
The move follows the findings of a study commissioned from McKinsey highlighting the size and fast growth of private healthcare in sub-Saharan Africa and the potential it has to improve tackle ill-health among the poor while generating profits.

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Top Challengers from Emerging Markets

A report from the Boston Consulting Group states:

Never before have so many potential competitors and customers arisen so quickly on a global scale. Moreover, the challengers have completely different approaches to competition, taking advantage of their bases in emerging markets. Many established industry leaders are frankly unprepared for these new types of competitors

via PSD Blog

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The Need to Speak Up

Chandran Nair writes in the FT about the need for Asians (ditto Africans) to speak up robustly on matters that directly impact them:

As globalisation changes the world, having a worldview of Asia that is essentially shaped by western outlooks and prejudices is not just narrow-minded, it is also potentially highly dangerous. It is a view that sees economic advances by Asian countries as threats and Asian business practices as inferior. We saw this with Japan in the 1980s. We are seeing it again today with China and India.
Such an outlook alienates Asian leaders, encouraging them to take nationalist positions in response. What is needed is the emergence of a confident body of Asian intellectual leaders. Not ones who speak on behalf of Asia as a whole – that leads to the kind of “Asian values” nonsense that we heard far too much about in the 1990s.
Ory Okolloh in a similar vein states that:
I’m tired of the Bono’s and Sach’s of this world articulating my views as an African. It’s one of the reasons I’m very quick to respond to media requests for interviews, profiles, etc. (I really could be a media slut) - I think it’s important for Africans to get our views out there
She wonders whether:
“Will No One Let Africa Speak for Itself?

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The rise in Valuation of African Equities

Merrill Advisor's Stan Luxenburg reports:

The market capitalization of listed sub-Saharan companies has climbed from 89% of GDP in 2000 to 137% in 2005, according to the World Bank. That suggests
a sharp rise in the valuation of African equities...While every major company on the Chinese and Indian exchanges may be followed by as many as 30 analysts, an African stock does wellto catch the attention of five. But equities in more popular Chinese and Indian markets are also much pricier than African shares. “If you look at price/earnings ratios or price/sales ratios, the other emerging markets are an awful lot more expensive than stocks in Africa,” says Merrill Lynch’s Rasco.

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Culture and Civilization-Kwame Anthony Appiah

At Poptech! Kwame Anthony Appiah talks about myths of Western culture and civilization:

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Monetising Culture

Lugard Ehimatie Aimiuwu makes suggestions on how to turn Benin-City's heritage into a tourist attraction:

Benin has, in its extensive military moats and mounds, described in the Guinness Book of Records as the largest earthworks in the world ( in the pre-mechanical era), a major tourism potential. Yet, a new creation Tinapa, is much better known not only abroad but also at home. It will most certainly become tomorrow’s money spinner because of purposeful management. Action: (a) rehabilitate the moats; (b) canvass for and secure UNESCO World Heritage Classification; (c) create and promote an annual tourist-attracting international event. Build pathways and driveways along the works and have Great Benin Moat Marathon, Great Benin Trek and perhaps African Grand Prix. There are so many possibilities; (d) also exploit the domestic potential by networking them into new canal system to help de-flooding and promote inland transportation.

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Looking at Africa through a different Prism

Drake Bennett writes in the Boston Globe about the anxiety related to the diversionary Aid conversation:

Africa analysts say that they have a broader concern: that the all-consuming discussion of aid has obscured - and perhaps even impeded - the recent positive developments on the continent. According to development economists, multinational corporations routinely overestimate the risks of doing business in Africa. Investment is the fuel of a free- market economy, and yet fear may be depriving many African countries of opportunities.
And the importance of the diaspora:
Africa's diaspora has been quicker to spot the opportunities. For years, economists have credited the remittances that African expatriates send home as a major source of income for African countries. Now, analysts say, the more open political and economic climate has meant that expats are increasingly providing more valuable resources: their brainpower and enthusiasm.

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Sierra Leone's Mining Sector

The Cheetah Index carries an article from The Standard Times Press News on Sierra Leone's recovering mining industry:

The ease of artisanal diamond mining has meant significant cash flow into the economy even during the worst war years, but sadly it also fed the rebellion. It is now helping to speed the recovery, finance imports, and generate needed employment. Yet it also draws labour power away from agriculture and into a highly speculative activity which holds the promise of wealth for a few and continued poverty for the majority. One cannot discuss trade and poverty in Sierra Leone without understanding the mineral sector.

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Europe trys to Rethink its Africa relationship

The Economist writes:

The Europeans are increasingly worried that they are losing both trade and clout on a continent that they used to regard as their own backyard. Over the past five years Europe has watched with a mixture of shock and awe as resource-hungry China has swept across a grateful continent, taking oil and minerals in exchange for anything the Africans want, be it money now, money later, ports or roads...All this has left Africa's leaders in the novel position of being able to pick their friends rather than being dictated to by others, be they white development economists or the IMF. And they are enjoying every minute of it.

Taking the continent for granted?
Europe, used to privileged access to African markets and politics, has been left floundering by the new competition. Europeans complain that China damages Africa by not linking its loans and investments to improvements in government and human rights, as the worthy Europeans do. But Africans are dismissive: as one official says, “Europe is jealous. They say we have gotten a new colonial master, but our old one wasn't so good.”

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An Identity Crisis

Jeremy of NaijaBlog writes:

Underneath all the bluster of Nigerian super-confidence and pride, there remains an internalised racial inferiority complex - an identity crisis lurks and circulates. The sub-conscious pattern logic is: nothing good comes from here. Everything good comes from overseas, and must therefore be white.

via Global Voices

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Staying Relevant- African Universities

Suleman H. Okech writes in the African Executive:

In Africa, Universities have the highest concentration of highly trained human resource capacity that should spearhead research, innovate, develop and transfer technologies. This potential has not been adequately exploited due to a number of factors… industrial investment in the country is spearheaded by international companies who are dependent on their parent companies’ research in the developed countries. Secondly, universities in Africa tend to work in isolation. Thirdly, there is lack of proper policies that encourage local research and participation of the universities in national development. Finally, low funding. High-level research is costly, and governments are reluctant to funds research.
via AfricanLoft

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The Corruption fighting Value of 'Vulture Funds'

In the NYTimes Lydia Polgreen reports on a countervailing view of 'Vulture Funds':

Organizations that fight corruption argue that those investors are exposing in court the corrupt networks of government officials, providing a much-needed check on mineral-rich states. Beyond that, anticorruption campaigners, like the groups Global Witness and the Publish What You Pay Coalition, contend that when nations win debt relief without becoming more accountable, they will simply repeat old mistakes and end up deep in debt once again.
“If it were not for these vulture funds, we would not know any facts about the way our country’s wealth is being taken away,” said Brice Mackosso, a campaigner for greater transparency in the Congo Republic’s government. “We don’t agree with their ultimate aims, but they are the only ones capable of exposing the truth.”

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Celina Cossa

The prizewinning Celina Cossa is the founder of "The General Union of Agricultural Cooperatives which now consists of 10,000 small-hold farmers organized in over 200 cooperatives.Activities have expanded to cover financial services, construction, industrial and agricultural production." In 1998 she stated:

We engaged the struggle through the most vulnerable sector of the society - women and children that comprise the majority of the population. It is for the emancipation and dignity of women and for the secure future of our children that we develop our work in the General Union of Cooperatives of Maputo.
Whereas a woman's technical capacity grows through training and literacy, it is through production that she recognizes her role in the transformation of society. She is no more a passive component but a participatory component of the community, opening the way to social stability based on mutual respect and personal achievement, human dignity and self reliance.

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Megacity-Lagos

Mariana van Zeller reports from Lagos,Nigeria. The worlds fastest growing Mega-City:

via Africaincorp

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New Actors in the Global Economy

Richard Gnodde writes in the FT:

For the past five years we have seen a strong period of global growth and wealth creation driven by the opening of new markets, financial innovation, favourable credit conditions and disciplined corporate management. Perhaps more striking has been the breadth of this growth – across geographies, asset classes and industries. We have one global economy, but it is increasingly powered by multiple engines, with multiple sources of demand and liquidity.
The new flows go beyond the increased investment in emerging markets to include investments from those markets into mature economies, and cross-border investments between emerging economies. Since 1990, cross-border capital flows have grown more than 10 per cent annually. Over that period, capital inflows to emerging markets have grown twice as fast as inflows to developed countries. Investment flowing to developing countries now accounts for nearly half of world total FDI inflows, compared with only 20 per cent in 1990. Even excluding China, the share doubled to 32 per cent.

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Can Greed Save Africa?

Roben Farzad writes in Businessweek:

In many ways, Africa's economic situation seems hopeless. While $625 billion in foreign aid has poured in since 1960, there has been no rise in the region's per capita gross domestic product, notes William R. Easterly, economics professor at New York University. What's more, from 1976 to 2000, Africa's share of global trade dropped to 1%, from an already negligible 3%. The U.N.'s scale of human development, which considers health, education, and economic well-being, ranks 34 African nations among the world's 40 lowest. Thus far, foreign aid hasn't made a dent.
Greed, however, might. Thanks to the global commodities boom of the past few years, sub-Saharan Africa's economies, after decades of stagnation, are expanding by an average of 6% annually—twice the U.S. pace. And like bees to honey, investors are swarming into the region in search of the enormous returns that ultra-early-stage investments can bring. Blue Financial, for example, has already netted its early private equity backers a ninefold gain thanks to the 385% rise in its stock since its October, 2006, initial public offering in Johannesburg. Emerging Capital Partners has bought all or part of 42 African companies this decade and cashed out of 18, with gains on their investments averaging 300%. "The money we can make is matchless," says Emerging Capital Partners CEO Thomas R. Gibian, a former Goldman Sachs (GS) banker.

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African Fractals at TED

Ron Eglash covered earlier, discusses African Fractals at TED Global:

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South-South Trade Boom Reshapes Global Order

IPSNews reports:

The world's new economic powerhouses, including India, Brazil, South Africa and China, are largely responsible for a dramatic surge in trade and investments among the 132 developing nations in the global South."The South as a whole is not only richer in absolute terms but their combined economic weight relative to the global economy has also substantially increased," says Yiping Zhou, director of the U.N.'s Special Unit for South-South Cooperation...During the past two-three decades, Zhou pointed out, developing country economies have grown much faster than those of the developed and transition economies.New patterns of trade, investment and other economic linkages are emerging rapidly, eroding the structures inherited from a colonial past, he added."This reality is also changing the institutional and power structures of the South, presenting before us an entirely different landscape of South-South and, for that matter, also South-North relations politically, economically and culturally."

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The Tradeoff Between Growth and Innovation

In NextBillion Manuel Bueno writes:

In the BOP, innovation often entails an unusual combination of technologies and other components that generates value for the consumer. It does not normally involve capital intensive research (like that which may be done in western pharmaceutical or technological corporations) or complex supply chains. BOP innovations are, for example, adding a torch light to mobile phones or developing wider washing machine pipes (for cleaning vegetables, you see). Rebecca Henderson of MIT and Kim Clark of Harvard have coined the phrase "architectural innovation" to describe these kind of innovations...Anywhere in the word, the best innovation will be the one that involves short development periods, less invested resources and brings additional benefits as fast as possible. However, at the BOP level, we are talking about probably more intuitive, more spontaneous and open innovations. They have a stronger anthropological bent, being dependent on customer observation and with more "obvious" innovations, rather than the more scientifically advanced research western markets are used to.

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Put the Business Model First

Al Hammond writing in NextBillion about the challenges of the OLPC states:

If there is any lesson that our studies here have shown, the essential starting point is a viable business model, grounded in a real understanding of needs, the value proposition as perceived by local people, and evidence of willingness to pay. Only then can technology opportunities really be evaluated. That is not to say that technology doesn’t have a critical role as an enabler for BOP communities—witness the still accelerating adoption of mobile phones (and their prepaid service business model). But engineers—especially those that don’t know developing market well—should take to heart the real moral of the laptop story: First, it’s the business model.

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"Law Must Lead African Progress"-Chinwe Uwandu

Darren Taylor of VOA reports on the work of Chinwe Uwandu:

A leading legal advisor to the Nigerian government says strong laws and effective implementation thereof must be the basis for Africa’s future progress. Chinwe Uwandu a former Yale fellow...represents Nigeria at various international forums, including the United Nations, and has helped secure Nigerian input into a number of continental and international treaties. In the third part of a series on African fellows at Yale, Darren Taylor reports on some of Uwandu’s achievements.

listen here


via African Loft

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NOI Polls

Founded by Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, recently profiled in the FT, NOI Polls seeks to address a knowledge gap in opinion research within Nigeria.The company states that:

The lack of adequate information often hampers decision-making by both businesses and governments. Although there is a large domestic market and an emerging middle class in Nigeria, most businesses operating in the Nigerian environment know that it is difficult to assess market demand or even consumer preferences. Similarly, government policy-makers are often unable to ascertain genuine public opinion on important economic or social issues as well as important government policy changes, reforms or legislative actions.

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Reverse Drain-Back to Africa for High School

Tristan McConnell writes in the Times:

Scores of British school children are being sent away to take their GCSEs in Ghana, exchanging truancy and gang culture for traditional teaching and strong discipline, including the cane...For the parents it is a chance to save their children from the thuggery that has seen 21 teenagers shot or stabbed to death in London alone this year. Abena and three other British pupils at her school now believe they are receiving a rigorous education that was lacking in Britain.

via EdWatch

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Judiciaries and their Impediments

Henry Ekwuruke reports on a meeting titled "Deepening the Judiciary’s Effectiveness in Combating Corruption". Its attendees:

grappled with the dual complexity faced by the judiciary in curbing corruption and the need for the judiciary to purge itself of corruption within its own ranks. The discussions aimed at proposing practical modalities to enhance the role of the judiciary in combating corruption.
Comments from various speakers ranged from:
"Our anti-corruption efforts are compounded by the difficulty of managing the expectations of the public..."Most cases involve highly complex transactions, spanning many jurisdictions, which brings about a lot of frustrations due to the apparent lack of progress,"Zambian participant.
To:
"In a country that at one point had the reputation of one of the worst countries to do business, we are fighting corruption on many fronts, including introducing anti money-laundering, and public procurement laws...“we must be incorruptible and must be ready to die in the course of duty.”,Nigerian representative.

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The Aid Evasion

Paul Collier author of 'The Bottom Billion'writes in OpenDemocracy:

Since the 1960s countries with around a billion people have been diverging from the rest of the world at an accelerating rate, a trend which will generate unmanageable social pressures. Most of these countries are in Africa, and so it is appropriate that the region should again have been on the Group of Eight (G8) agenda at the summit in Heiligendamm, Germany on 6-8 June 2007. Unfortunately, the debate on what the G8 should do has been entirely dominated by aid. More aid for parts of Africa would probably be helpful, but it would not be decisive in reversing divergence. It is, in fact, a sideshow relative to the other policy instruments that G8 governments control. It is the failure to use these instruments that is the tragic missed opportunity. Because aid has dominated the airwaves people are simply unaware of our true potential for action. Africa faces three distinctive economic problems, each amenable to a distinct policy.

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AIDs-Noble Untruths

In a follow-up to a recent announcement about inflated Aids figures Christopher Caldwell of the FT writes:

A quarter-century into an epidemic that has killed millions, the organisation that leads the fight admits that it has been doing so with shaky data. Certain doctors have been saying this for a long time and the UN has ignored them. This week’s correction was a reminder that, while the UN can sidestep local political squabbles, questions of accountability inevitably crop up again at the international level, with the stakes often much higher.

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The US frets, the South-South invests

While the US frets about Chinese investment in Africa, it underinvests.Meanwhile South-South investments in the continent continue to rise, one of the most recent being ArcelorMittal's steel industry plans for Mozambique.The FT reports:

As part of the project to build a plant capable of making 400,000 tonnes of steel a year, the Luxembourg-based company has also signed an agreement with the government of Mozambique under which it will look at the possibilities of operating new ventures in the country in mining iron ore and coal - important raw materials for steelmaking.

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Africa's yield potential

The FT reports:

Africa is the largest and most exciting group of the frontier markets and everyone wants to be part of it,” says Richard Segal, fixed income strategist at Renaissance Capital, the Russian investment bank.
Interest seems to have intensified in recent months – amid the credit turmoil in western finance – because African markets have exhibited low correlation to each other and other emerging and developed markets.

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A call for better Economic Analysis

Donald Kaberuka of the AFDB stated that "...In order to maximise efforts in research, policy analysis and information dissemination, Africans need to make more use of the skills of African academics and researchers, both within and outside the continent...for a long time, analysis of African economic conditions has been the domain of external institutions, which are external to the continent, rather than bringing African intellectuals together to exercise their voice..."

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Africa returns to the markets

Emerging Markets reports on SSA debt markets:

If domestic debt markets are to develop, it is also vital to improve local debt management, which has generally lagged behind efforts at debt relief. Countries need a clear debt management plan(pdf) and issuance strategy(pdf), which might include publishing a debt management report, lengthening the yield curve, building benchmark issues as conditions permit and widening the investor base
Establishing a market for sovereign debt issues is key:
The limited size of local debt markets means that not all financing needs can be met domestically, and external commercial borrowing may also be cheaper than domestic debt, by removing the inflation and currency risk faced by international investors. Finally, it also fits in with the need to maintain a diversified funding mix. African governments now seem ready to test international investor appetite with sovereign issues, and Ghana’s milestone Eurobond issue in September points the way – the Ghanaian government could not have raised $750 million at a yield of 8.5% in the local market. African companies have also been active in the international market, especially telecoms and banks, and we believe international bond issues will be a significant feature of corporate Africa going forward.

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M-Government

An upcoming event titled "Mobile Government: The New Frontier in Transforming Public Services." states that:

Mobile services are quickly emerging as the new frontier in transforming government and making it even more accessible and citizen-centric by extending the benefits of remote delivery of government services and information to those who are unable or unwilling to access public services through the Internet or who simply prefer to use mobile devices. In theory, many government services can be now made available on a 24x7x365 basis at any place in the world covered by mobile networks, which today means almost everywhere.

via PSD Blog

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HIV figures overstated by Millions

Should anyone be surprised by this? The NY Times reports:

In the past, global health officials have treated the epidemic as a cyclone spiraling ever upward with no end to new infections in sight.But better surveys, particularly a household survey in India, have driven the figures down.Until recently, most national estimates were made by giving anonymous blood tests to some young women who came into public health clinics because they were pregnant or feared they had a sexually transmitted disease; those results were expanded with statistical models.But epidemiologists have realized that such a method — usually applied in big urban clinics because it was more efficient — oversampled prostitutes, drug abusers and people with multiple partners, and ignored rural women. Then the statistical extrapolations exaggerated those errors.
The AIDS industry should be called to account.

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On the frontier of finance

The Economist writes:

Africa is enjoying its best period of sustained economic expansion since independence. Real GDP growth is expected to rise from 5.7% in 2006 to 6.1% this year and 6.8% in 2008. This good performance is partly driven by high commodity and oil prices. Foreign aid has also helped. But it is also due to better economic management, more openness and more stable politics. Such policies mean banks have to work harder to make a profit, but also help them to grow. That is encouraging them to reach out to new customers—and so they should.

However:
For all the progress, much remains to be done. In spite of innovations to bring in new customers, banks still have to build up necessary scale, cut costs and manage risks better. Sub-Saharan African economies are growing, but except for a handful, they remain very small: South Africa's GDP alone makes up almost 40% of the whole. Relative poverty is declining, but four out of ten Africans still have to survive on less than a dollar a day.

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Lagos's Informal Economy

Robert Neuwirth writes(pdf) about the critical role of the informal economy in Lagos, Nigeria:

The informal sector is the most dynamic and fastest-growing part of the city.Eighty per cent of the people who live in Lagos work in the informal economy,which accounts for more than two-thirds of Nigeria’s gross domestic product. This gives informal workers unusual economic power: about US$125 billion worth. The unemployment and the massive social upheaval and misery that would exist if the thousands of people who immigrate to Lagos every day weren’t able to find work could quickly lead to social and political anarchy. The informal sector is what holds the country together and what determines its shape.

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Next Eleven

Goldman Sachs coined the term BRIC countries in 2003, in a 2005 follow-up paper they added eleven potential BRICers to that list, the Next Eleven. Two of which are in Africa, Egypt and Nigeria:

In thinking about other countries that might have BRICslike potential, we focused on demographic profiles, which drive much of the analysis. Without a substantial population, even a successful growth story is unlikely to have a global impact. Hong Kong will never be a global
power nor Luxembourg, despite the very high levels of income and living standards that they have achieved.We call this larger developing-country set the Next Eleven (N-11), though whether they will ‘emerge’ is still an open question for many. This group shows broad representation by region and includes Bangladesh, Egypt,
Indonesia, Iran, Korea, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Turkey, Vietnam.

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Firing Up Factories

A recent Businessweek article on India highlights the importance of manufacturing in a countries ascent to developed worlds status:

While the dynamic software-services sector has picked up some of the slack, it employs just 2 million people—a speck in a country where 14 million new job seekers enter the market every year. India generates fewer than 1 million new manufacturing jobs annually, but needs to create at least five times that. And to really lift hundreds of millions of people out of poverty, India, like China, must build up labor-intensive export industries such as textiles, toys, and electronics. Many of the new plants are intended to serve India's growing market, but they're also targeting sales overseas.

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Déjà vu from the East?

Jonathan Power writes in the IHT:

"We are focusing on merger and acquisition in emerging markets in Asia and Africa because these places enjoy high growth rates and have great potential.",Jiang Jianqing of ICBC...The fact that a top Chinese banker brackets Africa with Asia is one more sign that the Asians themselves see what is happening in Africa as a repeat of what happened to them 20 and 30 years ago.

via PSD Blog

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"What African Means", Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie

Prize-winning author of "Half of a Yellow Sun" Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie speaks at the Christopher Okigbo International Conference. She talks about subjects which include "...Ideas of authenticity and Afrofashion..."See parts 1 2 3 .

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Protecting intellectual property

KenyanPoet writes about the need to develop intellectual property protections.

The Maasai Market Empowerment Trust (MMET)was formed due to the need for an organization that understands the intricacies of Intellectual Property as well as appreciate the cultural, economic and historical value art has in a country and its people.
It will not only seek to protect such products like Lesso(fabric) or Akala(sandals), it will also ensure that every one of its members is educated on Intellectual Property, its impact and need to protect their inventions, this will be through workshops, seminars, campaigns and other awareness programs. The Trust also hopes to provide Micro-finance facilities to its members to further expand their businesses.

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The GEMLOC Program

"...The Global Bond Fund For Emerging Market Local Currencies Program -- is designed to move more institutional investment into local currency bond markets in developing countries. Making local currency bond markets deeper and stronger can lower the cost of borrowing, and a liquid corporate debt market can help firms better manage risk. Institutional investors, both domestic and international, could benefit from investing in a diversified portfolio of local emerging market bonds as they offer diversification with low correlations and potential returns from an improving credit environment and currency appreciation..."

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Paul Biya: 25 Years and Counting...

Dibussi Tande analyses the sit-tight ineffectual Cameroon presidency.

Paul Biya failed to transform his nationalistic and progressive political vision into reality. By the end of the 1980s he had jettisoned all the key principles of his "New Deal" doctrine that had won him widespread national support and international acclaim early in his presidency...Unlike Ahmadou Ahidjo who was able "to frustrate somewhat the appetite of Northerners in order to stabilize his personal power" by carefully "cultivat[ing] ties with every ethnic group and [by] placat[ing] all the provincial elites with access to state resources," Biya "demonstrated less ability to control corruption and rent-seeking than Ahidjo had." He therefore allowed the "Beti barons" to increase "rent-seeking, corruption, and patronage beyond what Ahidjo ever allowed," and in the process, established a political system based on "ethnoclientelism".

via Pambazuka

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Nigeria's Venal Governors

African Loft highlights a BusinessDay article about Nigeria's kleptocratic governors:

As the second tier of government under Nigeria’s federal system, state governments comprise all arms - executive, legislative and judiciary. Just like at the federal level, each arm acts as a check on the other in the overall objective of providing good and equitable leadership to every state.
Every month, each state gets monetary allocations guaranteed by the constitution from the Federal Accounts Allocation Committee (FAAC). Apart from meeting recurrent needs, the allocation is supposed to be used to fund development projects. It is regrettable that in spite of the huge resources given to the states, little or nothing is on the ground to justify the expenditure made by the governors. In effect, a greater portion of the allocations are suspected to be diverted or siphoned away to private accounts by some unscrupulous governors.
Taking advantage of the weak institutional structures of the judiciary and the legislative arms, state governors have through the application of the carrot and stick strategy turned them into adjuncts and appendages of the Government House. Having accomplished that and with the constitution granting them immunity, state governors had a free reign plundering the resources of their states.

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Frontier Markets contd.

The Economist writes about emerging markets being the flavor to the moment,are they?:

Back in 2002, emerging-market bonds offered a yield a full ten percentage points higher than American Treasury bonds. This year, although spreads have widened from the historic lows seen in May, they have settled at a modest two percentage points or so.
The performance of the equity markets has also been impressive. The MSCI emerging markets index has risen by nearly 40% so far this year, a remarkable achievement given the credit crunch and geopolitical worries. Although China's stockmarket has more than doubled, this is not all about the People's Republic; the Polish, Indian, Brazilian and Pakistani markets are all up by more than 40%.
Indeed, investor focus is now shifting towards what Michael Hartnett of Merrill Lynch dubs “the emerging emerging markets”, such as Botswana and Kazakhstan. MSCI is in the process of launching a benchmark for such exotica called the “frontier market” index.

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Ending Parachute Science

SciDev reports:

Old-fashioned 'parachute science' — in which scientists from industrialised countries fly in to developing countries, obtain blood from a few patients and immediately return home with their samples — is no longer acceptable, say Frances Gotch and Jill Gilmour in Nature Immunology...Gotch and Gilmore have helped expand laboratories in Uganda to enable large-scale, international HIV vaccine trials to take place. They say trials must be carried out where the epidemic is worst and that their experience has shown high quality trials and good clinical practice, including sophisticated testing, can be done even in areas where resources are scarce.
Successful laboratory development requires a central 'supporting' laboratory as well as substantial investment in the training of laboratory and managerial staff, and sustained long-term support, they say.

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